Economics Explored

Gene responds to thoughtful listener feedback on record-low fertility rates and explores why childcare, IVF, and returning to work for fortysomething mothers can be so economically challenging. He then travels back to ancient Rome to unpack a curious moment after Augustus’s victory over Antony and Cleopatra, when treasure flooded into Rome, interest rates plummeted, and land values soared—and explains how this fits neatly into modern monetary economics. Finally, Gene revisits remarkable exchanges between Milton Friedman, Alan Greenspan, and Ronald Reagan that shed fresh light on the perennial debate over the gold standard.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. TimestampsIntroduction (0:00)Childcare Costs and Staffing Ratios (5:15)IVF Costs and Penalties for Women Returning to Work (9:52)Rise of Singleton Households and Economics of Smaller Populations (17:32)Economic Impact of Ancient Rome’s Influx of Gold and Treasure (22:56)Milton Friedman and the Gold Standard (42:01)TakeawaysChildcare costs are structurally high due to labour intensity, mandated staff–child ratios, and qualification requirements.The “motherhood penalty” is real and appears driven partly by human capital loss during career breaks and partly by occupational choices for flexibility.Augustus’s influx of treasure into Rome increased real money balances, pushing interest rates from ~12% to ~4% and boosting land prices—an excellent real-world example of short-run monetary non-neutrality.Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan both advised Ronald Reagan NOT to pursue a gold standard, arguing fiscal discipline and controlled monetary growth matter more than metal backing.Links relevant to the conversationReferenced Previous EpisodesIs Gold Flashing a Warning Sign? https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/is-gold-flashing-a-warning-sign-ep303The Great Baby Busthttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-great-baby-bust-why-it-happened-and-what-it-means-for-us-ep300The Gender Pay Debate: Understanding the Factors Behind the Gap w/ Dr Leonora Risse - EP230https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-gender-pay-debate-understanding-the-factors-behind-the-gap-w-dr-leonora-risse-ep230The Gender Pay Gap w/ Dr Leonora Rissehttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-gender-pay-gap-with-dr-leonora-risseChina’s falling population & global population update - EP174https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/chinas-falling-population-global-population-update-ep174U.S. Census data on rising singleton householdshttps://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-quarter-all-households-have-one-person.html  “The Motherhood Wage Penalty: A Meta-Analysis” – Social Science Research paperhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X20300144Florida childcare staffing ratioshttps://www.elcslc.org/parents/vpk-locator/licensing-files-what-to-look-for/state-of-florida-mandated-adult-to-child-ratios/Australian childcare qualification requirementshttps://earlychildhood.qld.gov.au/careers/qualifications-and-pathways/approved-qualificationsBooks MentionedTom Holland’s translation of Suetonius – Lives of the Caesarshttps://www.amazon.com.au/Lives-Caesars-Suetonius/dp/0241186897Sebastian Mallaby – The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspanhttps://www.amazon.com.au/Man-Who-Knew-Times-Greenspan/dp/0143111094Mark Blaug – Economic Theory in Retrospecthttps://www.amazon.com.au/Economic-Theory-Retrospect-Universiteit-Amsterdam/dp/0521577012Cassius Dio – Roman Historyhttps://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/e/roman/texts/cassius_dio/51*.htmlLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Gold has doubled in price in less than two years—so what exactly is happening? Gene Tunny and John Humphreys break down the economic and geopolitical forces driving the surge, from inflation fears and rising global debt to BRICS nations buying massive amounts of gold. The conversation also explores whether a new gold-backed currency could challenge US dollar dominance.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. Time stamps00:00 – Introduction01:30 – Why gold is surging04:30 – The role of inflation fears & global debt07:15 – BRICS gold buying and the idea of a gold-backed currency12:00 – Is a gold-backed currency workable?16:00 – Gold vs. fiat currencies: long-term stability22:30 – Geopolitical implications of a shift away from the USD26:00 – Gene’s clarification of Ken Rogoff’s perspective28:30 – Outro TakeawaysGold has doubled in price in under two years, suggesting deep market concerns about inflation, debt, geopolitics, or structural distrust of fiat currencies.BRICS nations—particularly China—are buying unprecedented amounts of gold, possibly preparing for a commodity-backed settlement currency.A gold- or commodity-backed currency is politically useful for BRICS, as it may help overcome trust deficits relative to the US.Gold standards constrain monetary policy, reducing the ability to monetize debt or respond flexibly to recessions. Gene and John debate whether this constraint is feature or bug.LinksGold charts:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TamqJ1GOpXxveAVLRS0UJnb7U9GyRATX/view?usp=sharingATA livestream on 6 November:https://www.youtube.com/live/gSVJ9ZU6lC4?si=8sXvajwG5cdUk85fLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED  Promo code: 10EXPLORED

“Make things again” — it’s a powerful slogan. But what does it really mean for Australia’s economy, workers, and national security? Show host Gene Tunny and Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance Chief Economist John Humphreys dig into the heart of the debate, from the politics of nostalgia to the realities of automation and global trade. A thought-provoking conversation about whether Australia can, or should, bring manufacturing back home.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. Timestamps00:00 – Introduction – Why “Make Things Again” is back in the headlines01:40 – From CIS Consilium to the manufacturing debate06:15 – The political appeal of “making things again”12:50 – Australia’s car industry and economic reality16:55 – What policy tools are we really talking about?21:45 – The energy policy civil war on the right27:50 – Legitimate arguments for tariffs: revenue & security31:30 – National security, China, and economic resilience40:10 – Automation and the meaning of work44:55 – The future of the centre-right48:25 – Wrap-up: where the new right might go49:00 – Outro – national security, critical minerals & what’s nextTakeawaysAutomation has changed everything – Even if manufacturing expands, the old factory jobs aren’t coming back; future growth will be in advanced, high-value sectors.Politics vs economics – “Made in Australia” is powerful politically, but protectionism risks higher costs and lower productivity.National security is a legitimate concern – But it needs a framework; not everything can be justified in its name.Energy costs are critical – High power prices are a big constraint on manufacturing.Meaningful work matters – Many calls for reindustrialisation reflect cultural and social concerns about meaning, not just economics.Links relevant to the conversationATA livestream of Made in Australia debate || ATA #26:https://www.youtube.com/live/tvBKU7-Ce7E?si=g-Mr8AlL3-wDxNlEAndrew Hastie MP’s call to make things again:https://youtube.com/shorts/9NQGcBnaI8I?si=h4jwFskB2byxJ6YySimon Cowan’s opinion piece “The hard truth: why the government should let this smelter fai”:https://www.cis.org.au/commentary/opinion/the-hard-truth-why-the-government-should-let-this-smelter-fail/Productivity Commission paper “Guardrails for modern industry policy”:https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries-and-research/guardrails-industry-policy/Richard Holden’s AFR article “Labor needs a strategy to say where minerals bailouts stop” (paywalled):https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-needs-a-strategy-to-say-where-minerals-bailouts-stop-20251012-p5n1szJohn Quiggin’s article “If government bailouts of companies are the new normal, we need a better strategic vision”:https://theconversation.com/if-government-bailouts-of-companies-are-the-new-normal-we-need-a-better-strategic-vision-267111Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Venture capitalist Aman Verjee joins Gene Tunny to explore whether artificial intelligence is fuelling the next great economic bubble. Drawing lessons from history—from the 1840s railway boom to the 1990s dot-com surge—Aman argues that even frothy markets can spark long-term progress. The conversation also covers AI’s impact on jobs, productivity, and how policy can nurture innovation without strangling it.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. TimestampsIntroduction and Guest Overview (0:00)Aman Verjee's Background and Experience (2:26)Aman’s Role and Responsibilities at Practical Venture Capital (5:50)AI and Financial Bubbles (10:01)AI in Business and Everyday Life (13:30)Impact of AI on Jobs and the Economy (17:29)US Economy and Government Shutdown (21:27)Policies to Boost Productivity (27:29)Aman Verjee's Book on Financial Bubbles (37:08)Conclusion and Contact Information (43:30)TakeawaysAI may be in a “frothy” phase but not necessarily a bubble—valuations are high, yet many firms are potentially transformative.Past bubbles often produced some lasting value: the 1990s tech and 1840s railway booms birthed major industries that delivered lasting benefits after crashes.AI will reshape, not erase, jobs—disruption creates new roles as others disappear, echoing past technological revolutions.Policy matters: lower regulation, smarter taxation, and education reform are crucial for productivity growth.History’s warning: bubbles fueled by debt (like the 2000s US housing boom and 1880s Melbourne land boom) are far more damaging than equity-driven ones.Links relevant to the conversationAman Verjee’s firm: https://practicalvc.com/Aman’s trading places podcast:https://practicalvc.com/trading-places/Regarding Melbourne house prices: “Melbourne house prices fell 51% in real terms (prices minus inflation) in the 1890s”https://www.morningstar.com.au/personal-finance/lessons-from-australias-largest-property-bustsLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Australia’s fertility rate is now at a record low of 1.48 babies per woman. Gene Tunny and John Humphreys discuss the sharp fall in fertility rates worldwide and what it means for Australia’s economy and society. They explore how declining birth rates threaten our economy, government budgets, and social cohesion, and whether migration, pro-natalist policies, or cultural change can reverse this trend.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. TimestampsIntroduction to Episode on Decline in Fertility Rates and Economic Implications (0:00)Discussion with John Humphreys on Fertility Rates (5:12)Economic and Social Forces Driving Down Fertility (14:16)Impact of Low Fertility Rates on Asset Prices and Social Cohesion (15:50)Challenges of Migration and University Policies (20:25)Historical and Sociological Factors Influencing Fertility Rates (29:57)Potential Solutions and Policy Recommendations (40:15)TakeawaysAustralia’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.48 births per woman—its lowest level ever and far below the replacement rate of 2.1.Migration isn’t a sustainable fix: fertility rates are also falling in nearly every country, even traditional migrant sources.Economic and cultural shifts—urbanisation, delayed marriage, individualism, and welfare-state expansion—have weakened traditional social structures supporting families.The Baby Bonus experiment of the 2000s temporarily lifted fertility, but its effects were uneven and costly.Long-term implications include labour shortages, rising welfare burdens, asset price declines, and profound cultural change.Links relevant to the conversationABS births data:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/2024e61 analysis of the Baby Bonus:https://e61.in/australias-fertility-decline-evidence-and-policy-experience/Birthgap documentary:https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=vuZvBqwVkZn3q1oZLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Shutdowns are back—and Gene delves into the reasons, ramifications, and rhetoric. This episode examines the latest U.S. government shutdown, its potential to outlast previous ones, and whether it could signal deeper structural changes—or just more political theatre.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. TimestampsUS Government Shutdown Overview (0:00)Political Causes and Consequences (2:47)Impact on Federal Workers and Services (6:44)Economic and Financial Implications (10:22)Data Blackout and Market Trust (19:25)Political Dynamics and Potential Resolutions (21:07)Potential Long-Term Economic and Market Impacts (23:38)Call for Public Input and Conclusion (24:02)TakeawaysThe shutdown has happened due to a failed continuing resolution, not the debt ceiling—this time, it’s a clash over health insurance subsidies and spending on undocumented immigrants.Shutdowns rarely alter the long-term trend in government spending, as federal outlays tend to rebound after the shutdown ends.Federal workers often get back pay, but contractors do not—highlighting real economic pain for many.Economic impact is limited and short-term, though the longer this drags on, the greater the potential for serious consequences.This shutdown might be different, as political polarisation has deepened and there are hints of a broader agenda to shrink government permanently.Links relevant to the conversationCBO report on the 2019 shutdown:https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937CBS News report “Who gets back pay and who doesn't after a government shutdown?”https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-contract-worker-back-pay/David Wessel’s Brookings article “What is a government shutdown?”:https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-government-shutdown-and-why-are-we-likely-to-have-another-one/J.P. Morgan note “How does a potential U.S. government shutdown impact markets?”:https://am.jpmorgan.com/au/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-does-us-government-shutdown-impact-markets/Emily Jashinsky’s video “Democrats LOSE IT over sombrero meme as Trump Unleashes 'Doge 2.0'”https://youtu.be/JQCg-NuTAYI?si=s7eS7VgBH43Ab8VDBernie Sanders and AOC video on the shutdown:https://youtu.be/fqWsPk7QO24?si=1RBjjEQogMMoLCzrRelevant previous Economics Explored episodes:Debt, Inflation & Unrest: Western Warnings - ep297https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/debt-inflation-unrest-western-warnings-ep297US Debt Ceiling: Why Trump is Right to Call for its Abolition & Gene’s Experience with Aussie Debt Ceiling - EP268https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/us-debt-ceiling-why-trump-is-right-to-call-for-its-abolition-genes-experience-with-aussie-debt-ceiling-ep268Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell - EP235https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED

What does net zero really mean, and what will it take to get there? In this episode, highlights from past guests reveal the full spectrum of views—from urgent calls for climate action to scepticism about costs and feasibility. With perspectives on extreme weather, carbon pricing, nuclear energy, coal, and productivity trade-offs, this episode cuts to the heart of the net-zero debate. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. TimestampsEconomic Impact of Climate Change with Nikki Hutley (0:00)Defining Net Zero with Tony Wood (8:56)Criticism of Net Zero by Senator Matt Canavan (24:04)Challenges of Meeting Australia’s 2035 Emissions Targets with John Humphreys (39:06)TakeawaysThe cost of inaction versus transition costs—Nicki Hutley warns that extreme weather and health impacts already impose huge economic costs, and she argues the costs of inaction outweigh the costs of action.Technology is key—Tony Wood from the Grattan Institute stresses the need for innovation in batteries, hydrogen, soil carbon, and carbon capture.Scepticism about global commitments—Senator Matt Canavan doubts countries like China and India will follow through, arguing Australia risks self-harm.Productivity at risk—John Humphreys warns ambitious emissions targets could de-industrialise Australia and hurt long-term growth.The debate remains unresolved—balancing economic prosperity with climate goals is still one of the defining challenges of our age.Links relevant to the conversationAustralian Taxpayers’ Alliance Livestream of 18 September 2025 (which shows the emission reduction charts Gene refers to in this episode):https://www.youtube.com/live/8YxnRT_YD50?si=_A1udQmCag3dMtyCPrevious Economics Explored episodes, including the highlights from this episode:https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/climate-change-with-nicki-hutley-from-deloitte-access-economicshttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/cop26-climate-change-summit-with-tony-wood-grattan-institutehttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/aussie-senator-matt-canavan-cop26-dissenting-voices-part-2Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Gene Tunny and John Humphreys unpack the economic troubles brewing in the UK, France, and the US—rising debt, social unrest, inflation, and faltering productivity. They explore why bond markets are sounding alarms, why governments are struggling to respond, and what this all means for Australia. The episode draws urgent lessons from these fiscal failures, with stark warnings for what lies ahead if policy inertia continues. Among other issues, they discuss Gary Stevenson’s proposal for a wealth tax in the UK. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com.This episode was recorded on Thursday, 18 September 2025.  TimestampsEconomic Challenges in Major Western Economies (0:00)Discussion on UK Economic Turmoil (2:31)Impact of Bond Market on UK Government (7:35)Comparison with France and the US (16:43)Lessons for Australia (35:29)Impact of Political Polarisation (43:55)Potential Solutions and Challenges (44:15)Global Economic Repercussions (44:49)Conclusion and Final Thoughts (46:24)TakeawaysThe UK’s fiscal crisis is deepening with stalled per capita GDP, rising debt, and bond markets losing confidence.France is politically paralysed amid fiscal deficits and bond yields now surpassing Italy’s—an unprecedented shift.The US faces stagflation risks, with inflation ticking back up and concerns about economic growth.Productivity stagnation is the root problem across Western economies, fueling deficits and weakening growth.Australia must learn from others' mistakes, avoiding unsustainable spending and instead boosting productivity.Links relevant to the conversationSlides with charts referred to this episode:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZMkunGxYj57TnCajOxvMcTEh0fQj0y5L/view?usp=sharingAustralian Taxpayers’ Alliance Livestream of 18 September 2025:https://www.youtube.com/live/8YxnRT_YD50?si=_A1udQmCag3dMtyCLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Show host Gene Tunny breaks down why price controls are one of the most consistently failed economic policies. Using vivid historical examples from the 1970s US, the Soviet Union’s command economy, and Venezuela’s toilet paper crisis, he illustrates how interfering with the price mechanism leads to shortages, inefficiency, and unintended consequences. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com.TimestampsIntroduction to the Podcast and Episode Theme (0:00)Price Controls and Their Economic Implications (2:47)President Nixon's Wage and Price Controls (8:53)The Soviet Union's Central Planning System (18:20)Economic Inefficiency in the Soviet Steel Industry (29:24)Venezuela's Toilet Paper Crisis (31:57)TakeawaysPrice controls disrupt vital economic signals, leading to misallocation of resources and market inefficiency.Nixon’s wage and price freeze in the 1970s led to empty supermarket shelves, black markets, and farmers slaughtering livestock to cut their losses.Soviet central planning failed due to the absence of price signals, leading to constant shortages—even of basic goods like meat and bread.Venezuela’s price caps on essentials like toilet paper created massive shortages and forced the government to import millions of rolls.The price mechanism acts as a societal dashboard, helping balance supply and demand more efficiently than central planning or rationing.Links relevant to the conversationBen Bernanke’s book – 21st Century Monetary Policyhttps://www.amazon.com.au/21st-Century-Monetary-Policy-Inflation/dp/1324020466BBC News Article on Venezuela's Toilet Paper Crisis: "Venezuela aims to end toilet paper shortage"https://www.bbc.com/news/business-22621833Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russiahttps://www.amazon.com.au/Bread-Autocracy-Politics-Security-Putins/dp/019768436XStephen Kotkin – Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse 1970–2000https://www.amazon.com.au/Armageddon-Averted-Soviet-Collapse-1970-2000/dp/0195368630Friedrich Hayek – “The Use of Knowledge in Society”https://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw.htmlLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

In this candid discussion, show host Gene Tunny joins a panel to expose the shortcomings of the Australian Government’s August 2025 economic reform summit. Topics include the high cost of energy, tax policy, the ballooning NDIS and big government generally, AI regulation, and Senator Matt Canavan’s rival roundtable, which Gene attended. This episode borrows the audio from Damian Coory’s The Other Side episode broadcast on YouTube on 22 August 2025. The other guests are Graham Young, Executive Director of the Australian Institute for Progress, and Dan Petrie, a data analyst and former editor at Bloomberg.  Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via contact@economicsexplored.com.TimestampsAustralian Government's Economic Reform Roundtable Overview (0:00)Critique of the Official Roundtable (3:26)Challenges in Defining Productivity and Addressing Labor Market Issues (6:59)Impact of Government Spending and Energy Costs on Productivity (9:48)Innovation and Small Business Challenges (34:00)Taxation and Economic Reform Proposals (34:29)NDIS and Healthcare Funding Challenges (51:04)Final Thoughts on the Roundtable and Future Directions (51:15)TakeawaysThe Official Roundtable Lacked Focus & Diversity: Only six business leaders were among 30 participants — a serious oversight for a summit focused on productivity and economic reform.Energy Costs Are a Major Barrier: Australia’s rapid rollout of renewable energy is raising energy prices, affecting both consumers and heavy industries.Government Spending Is Too High: Public spending is nearing 40% of GDP, with half of Australians now receiving government income, raising concerns about sustainability and productivity.Small Business & Innovation Ignored: There was little meaningful discussion of the role of small business or innovation in driving productivity.AI Regulation Needs a Balanced Approach: The roundtable discussions on AI were dominated by union concerns, focusing on job protection rather than innovation. This risks stifling technological advancement and missing opportunities for productivity gains.NDIS Costs Are Spiralling Out of Control: The National Disability Insurance Scheme is growing at an unsustainable rate, with concerns about high eligibility and inadequate oversight. The government’s proposed changes lack proper consultation and shift costs to the states.Links relevant to the conversationThe Other Side episode - “AUSTRALIA's Decline - No Vision, No Innovation, Just MORE Big Government and Taxes”:https://youtu.be/FeicrCu2sO0?si=Rd8xZV_CsmLzikW0Senator Matt Canavan’s roundtable broadcast on Sky News - “Real Productivity Roundtable reveals four ways to save Australia:”https://youtu.be/4xBGcjIXgHU?si=Uk1kaqq92bhacSmaRobert Carling’s recent paper - “Leviathan on the Rampage: Government spending growth a threat to Australia’s economic future”:https://www.cis.org.au/publication/leviathan-on-the-rampage-how-the-growth-of-government-is-draining-australias-economic-vitality/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED