Saxo Market Call The cracks beginning to show as we are flying blind on state of US labor market.
8 snips
Aug 4, 2025 
Join Ole Hansen, Saxo's Head of Commodities Strategy, as he unpacks recent shifts in the US labor market following unexpected payroll revisions. The discussion delves into the implications of geopolitical tensions, especially regarding China's grip on rare earth elements and its impact on US defense. Hansen also explores fluctuations in precious metals and the complexities affecting copper markets. Lastly, the podcast touches on how AI is transforming employment dynamics, raising concerns about a potential white-collar recession.
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Unreliable US Labor Market Data
- The US labor market data is unreliable due to poor survey response rates and flawed modeling methods.
- Negative revisions in payroll numbers have significantly spooked markets and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Copper Market Disparity and Inventory Risks
- Copper markets have diverged between London and New York due to tariff speculation and market uncertainty.
- High inventories in US warehouses could trigger a price reversal if New York prices trade below London levels.
Metals Show Volatility but Hold Support
- Silver and platinum prices show sharp rallies followed by quick corrections, with major support levels holding.
- Metals like gold could benefit if stagflation fears rise alongside a potential US economic slowdown and rate cuts.
