NBA Finals Game 3 Preview + Best Bets !!

Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers talk NBA Finals Game 3 betting. Best bets as always.

The podcast hosted by Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers on RJ Bell's Dream Preview delves into the NBA Finals Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. The conversation opens with a recap of the first two games. Game 1 saw Indiana pull off a dramatic 111-110 comeback win despite Oklahoma City dominating most of the match. Rivers critiqued the Thunder’s 207 passes—lowest in the league this season—paired with suboptimal shooting: SGA scored 38 on 14-of-30, while Holmgren went 2-of-9 and Jalen Williams shot 6-of-19. He referenced young stars’ struggles in early Finals appearances to contextualize OKC’s performance and emphasized his power ratings still favor Thunder significantly over Pacers.

In Game 2, the Thunder responded decisively with a 123-107 victory. Munaf noted heavy betting movement on OKC and the ease with which they covered both spread and team total (120.5). Player stats were more balanced: SGA posted 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting, Holmgren bounced back with 15 on 6-of-11, Caruso hit four threes en route to 20 points, and Wiggins added 18 off the bench. Munaf applauded Coach Mark Daigneault for stellar in-game and series adjustments, likening his growing status to elite coaches. Rivers supported this by citing Daigneault’s league-best 60.2% ATS record since 2020-21 (220-139-7), reinforcing Thunder’s first-half dominance where they’ve led by an average of 14 points and both games' first halves stayed under the total.

They discussed betting angles with Game 3 looming. While Rivers downplayed OKC’s 0-7 ATS road playoff record due to small sample size, he endorsed betting Thunder -5.5 based on his power ratings and market comparison. The Thunder were -400 after splitting two games with Denver; against Indiana, the series price ballooned to -525, implying the market sees Indiana as a weaker opponent. He argued the spread should be closer to -7, citing historical trends where teams that won and covered Game 2 as road favorites in Game 3 are 3-0 straight up and ATS.

Munaf explored Indiana’s home court advantage, citing their 16 playoff home games over two seasons: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS, and 10-6 to the over. He correlated betting the over with Pacers’ competitiveness. Rivers agreed, noting the faster-than-usual Finals pace (102.5 and 98), exceeding previous series like Heat-Nuggets. He identified both teams’ willingness to launch threes as a key driver of pace despite low transition play. Both agreed on the over (228) for Game 3.

They highlighted Tyrese Halliburton’s prop values. When Halliburton scores 20+, he averages 11 assists; below that, just 7.5. He’s had 8 double-doubles in 18 playoff games, 4 at home. Munaf and Rivers both endorsed his over on combined points and assists (25.5) and his double-double at +160.

Shifting to league news, they addressed Darius Garland’s toe surgery which sidelines him for 4–5 months. Trade rumors link him to Sacramento. Rivers emphasized Garland’s significance to Cleveland’s offensive identity alongside Mitchell. With Garland out or traded, the Eastern Conference becomes wide open. Despite injuries, Rivers considers Cleveland a better team than Indiana or New York if healthy. Odds show Knicks and Pacers at 8-1, Cavs at 11-1, Celtics falling to 20-1 due to Tatum’s issues.

They closed by discussing the Knicks coaching vacancy. Jason Kidd, Mike Malone, and longshots like Jeff Van Gundy or Johnny Bryant were mentioned. Kidd’s potential move may stem from dissatisfaction with the Luka Doncic trade. They agreed New York requires a seasoned coach, with Vogel and Budenholzer seen as less dynamic fits. Munaf finished with promo details and noted Halliburton practiced fully despite “a leg thing,” suggesting no injury impact for Game 3.

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