If you can predict cash flow you can predict stock price - Austin Hankwitz
Feb 22, 2024
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Austin Hankwitz discusses focusing on profitability and cash flow, the undervaluation of Russell 2000, breakdown of covered call ETFs performance, bullish outlook on Salesforce, and strategies for building a $2 million dividend growth portfolio
Predicting cash flow can forecast stock prices, emphasizing operational and free cash flow margins.
Invest in areas you understand to build a concentrated, effective portfolio, avoiding sectors lacking comprehension.
Deep dives
Focus on Cash Flow and Profitability in Market Trends
In the episode, Austin highlights the shift in market focus towards cash flow and profitability in 2024. Companies like Meta, Salesforce, DraftKings, and Sentinel-1 exemplify this transition. By emphasizing operational cash flow and free cash flow margins, Austin suggests that predicting cash flow can lead to stock price predictions. This strategic shift marks a move away from overhiring and growth-centric approaches seen in the tech sector in previous years.
Importance of Investing in Understandable Areas
Austin emphasizes the significance of investing in areas one understands. He avoids sectors like banks, airlines, and biotechnology companies due to a lack of understanding. Encouraging investors to focus on what they know, Austin advises against investing based solely on external recommendations. He promotes transparent self-assessment, suggesting that a concentrated portfolio of well-understood investments can be more effective.
Salesforce Optimizations and Challenges
Austin discusses Salesforce's strategic layoffs as part of its focus on profitability and cash flow optimization. Despite positive indicators like revenue growth estimates and operational margin expansion, Austin notes potential challenges such as longer sales cycles. He cautions against impact from challenging sales environments, which could affect Salesforce's performance in 2024. However, he remains optimistic about the company's prospects with a detailed analysis of key financial metrics.
Why Austin Hankwitz is focused on profitability and cash flow (1:55). Russell 2000 is weirdly undervalued (5:25). Breaking down covered call ETFs SPYI, JEPI and XYLD performance (8:30). Why he's so bullish on Salesforce (22:30).
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