The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Buyers Mask Up as US Sneezes, Says CreditSights
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Mar 20, 2025 
Winnie Cisar, the global head of strategy at CreditSights, dives into the shifting landscape of corporate credit investments as global portfolio managers look beyond the US for opportunities amid rising volatility. She discusses the implications of trade wars and stagflation on US borrowers while highlighting potential investments in sectors like industrials and Boeing bonds. With US exceptionalism waning, Cisar emphasizes the increasing allure of markets in China and Europe as investors adapt to new economic dynamics.
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Market Sentiment vs. Reality
- Global markets face recession fears and geopolitical uncertainty, yet credit spreads are tight.
- Bond markets price in low recession odds despite weakening consumers and uncertain business environments.
Stagflation Light Concerns
- CreditSights is slightly worried about a "stagflation light" scenario, but less so about a full recession.
- Corporate credit fundamentals appear stronger now than before previous consumer recessions.
Tight Spreads and Yield Environment
- Credit spreads remain tight despite market uncertainty, likely because the broader yield environment hasn't changed drastically.
- Treasury yields would likely be lower if recession fears were truly priced in.