In this episode, Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, along with Daniel Levy, discuss the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border, and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. They also assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.'s role in halting the fighting, and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
The podcast highlights the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza, resulting in heavy battles, casualties, and extensive destruction, along with the potential for starvation due to the blockade and food shortages.
The escalation of violence in the West Bank, including settler attacks and raids by Israeli forces targeting Hamas militants, has caused significant Palestinian casualties, disruptions to daily life, and a relatively passive response from the Palestinian Authority.
Deep dives
Violence and Destruction in Gaza
The podcast episode discusses the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza, which has resulted in heavy battles and extensive destruction. The podcast highlights that the Israeli military operations have caused a significant number of casualties among Palestinians, including many children, as well as widespread devastation in the region. Additionally, the UN has warned about the possibility of starvation in Gaza due to the blockade and food shortages. The episode also mentions the potential deal between Hamas and Israel, which would involve the release of hostages in exchange for a temporary pause in military operations.
Escalation of Violence in the West Bank
The podcast addresses the escalation of violence in the West Bank following the October 7th terror attacks. Israeli forces have conducted raids in the West Bank to target Hamas militants, while there has been a rise in settler attacks on Palestinians. The episode highlights the significant number of Palestinian casualties and mass arrests of Palestinians by Israeli security forces. The actions of settler militias, who have become more prominent, have caused severe disruptions to daily life for Palestinians in the West Bank. It is noted that the Palestinian Authority has been relatively passive in response to the situation.
Exchanges of Fire on Israel-Lebanon Border
The podcast explores the increased exchanges of fire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border. The intensity of the conflict has been escalating, with both sides targeting deeper into each other's territories and using more advanced weaponry. The episode mentions the risks of unintended escalation and the concern that casualties could potentially grow significantly. The US has been urging Israel to avoid further escalation, and there is a growing worry among Western leaders about the situation.
Implications for the Future and Diplomatic Efforts
The podcast discusses the implications for the future and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. It emphasizes the need for a long-term ceasefire and highlights the challenge of finding a political solution. The episode mentions the difficulty of rebuilding Gaza due to the extensive destruction and displacement of the population. It also addresses the role of the US and other international actors in advancing a political process and the need for a comprehensive approach that takes into account the aspirations and rights of both Israelis and Palestinians.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks to Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, as well as to Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project, about the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, the escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. Richard first talks to Tahani about the spike in violence in the West Bank, including Israeli settler attacks, how the Palestinian Authority has responded and what role it might play in Gaza. He then talks with Heiko about the intensifying clashes at the Israel-Lebanon border and risks of further escalation. In a longer conversation, Richard and Daniel assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.’s role in halting the fighting in Gaza, what a day after in Gaza might look like and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page.