Unhedged OK, Doomer
119 snips
Sep 2, 2025 Valuations are at risky highs while employment figures shrink, stirring fears of an impending market collapse. The hosts reflect on past economic predictions, particularly the 2008 crisis, revealing the balance between hope and realism. They delve into the unpredictable financial landscape, spotlighting the role of big tech and AI in investments. Financial instability signs are compared to historical downturns, and the current stability in the private real estate market is celebrated, all while enjoying light-hearted banter about September's pleasant weather.
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Calm Markets Can Mask Growing Risk
- Markets look unusually calm despite many visible risks like geopolitics and policy uncertainty.
- Calm markets can mask growing probabilities of sudden downside events.
Missed Warnings From 2008
- Katie recalled being pregnant in 2008 and writing about an academic who predicted a crash that editors spiked.
- She used the story to show many saw warnings before 2008 but were ignored.
The Noise Of Constant Doom Calls
- Many people predict crises and most of those predictions never materialize, which creates noise.
- Hitting the right call occasionally builds reputation but carries a professional risk if you're pessimistic too early.