Discover the secrets of trading weekly options on SPY and SPX indexes. The hosts dive into strategies that enhance profitability, investigating the impact of a moving average filter. They analyze performance over three years, revealing insights about optimal trading days and win rates. Surprisingly, trading without the filter on Wednesdays yielded the best results. Tune in for a blend of strategy and analytics that could elevate your trading game!
Wednesday is the most favorable day for trading at the money put credit spreads on SPY, achieving a 72% win rate.
Adding an 8 EMA moving average filter did not enhance profitability, emphasizing the potential limitations of filters in trading strategies.
Deep dives
Optimal Trading Day Analysis
Wednesday proved to be the most favorable day for trading at the money put credit spreads on SPY, according to a three-year analysis. This study revealed that when trading these options with seven days to expiration, a win rate of 72% was achieved on Wednesdays, compared to only 68% on Fridays and 70% on Mondays. The previous episode incorrectly stated the performance rankings of the days, but this episode clarified that Friday performed the worst, emphasizing the importance of accurate data interpretation in trading strategies. This highlights how day selection can significantly impact trading outcomes and profitability.
Comparative Performance: SPY vs. SPX
The comparison between SPY and SPX trading revealed similar profitability despite differing win rates; SPY had a 72% win rate while SPX recorded 68%. Interestingly, even though SPX required a higher capital investment of $500 per trade due to its five-point spread, the overall returns remained comparable over the review period. Specifically, traders achieved over $1,000 in profit using SPY with a $100 investment, while in SPX, a $500 investment yielded just over $5,000. This demonstrates how capital efficiency and different trading instruments can influence overall profitability, highlighting the importance of selecting the right index for options trading.
Evaluating Filters: The 8 EMA Experiment
An experiment was conducted to assess whether adding an 8 EMA moving average filter improved trading outcomes, expecting it to limit trades during downtrends. While the filter showed varied effects across the days, it failed to enhance profitability overall; for instance, Wednesday's profitability decreased slightly despite an increase in win rate. Monday's trades with the filter resulted in reduced profits, while Friday saw a minor increase in both win rate and profit. Ultimately, the analysis concluded that trading without the filter on Wednesdays still yielded the highest total profit, reinforcing the idea that additional filters may not necessarily enhance a strategy's effectiveness.
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Exploring Weekly Option Trading Strategies with SPY and SPX
We're expanding last week's weekly options study by adding a moving average filter to our trades. The goal here is to determine if adding a would be bullish filter will improve the results of this already profitable strategy of trading bull put spreads with 7 days to expiration on SPY and SPX.
This episode is an expansion of Episode 7 so here's the link if you'd like to go back and listen to that episode.