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Bloomberg Intelligence
S&P 500 Earnings Outlook
Oct 14, 2024
Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers her insights on U.S. earnings forecasts, highlighting stark contrasts with analyst expectations. Crystal Tse, Bloomberg U.S. Deals Reporter, dives into the proxy battle between Southwest Airlines and Elliott Management, revealing corporate governance challenges. Kristina Hooper discusses market influences, while Rich Greenfield analyses changes in the media landscape. Gautam Naik and Kyle Harrison explore the impact of catastrophe bonds and clean energy trends, respectively, underscoring their relevance in today’s financial climate.
50:55
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Quick takeaways
- There is a notable discrepancy between corporate earnings guidance, predicting 16% growth, and analyst expectations of only 4%.
- The performance of major tech stocks significantly influences market trends, although other sectors can also post gains independently.
Deep dives
Market Adjustments and Earnings Growth Projections
A significant divergence exists between corporate earnings guidance and analyst expectations, with corporate guidance projecting around 16% earnings growth, while analysts only anticipate about 4%. This disparity is attributed to the selective nature of earnings guidance, as only around 20% of S&P 500 companies provide it, primarily from sectors like technology and consumer discretionary, which are also the strongest in the index. Conversely, energy companies continue to report substantial declines in earnings yet offer little to no guidance. This highlights a sector skew that may influence market perceptions, as the gap suggests analysts might be overly pessimistic about near-term earnings potential.
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