The Outlier Trading Podcast Can Beginners Really Trade Like Pros? | The Outlier Podcast Unplugged Ep2
Nov 11, 2025
Trey J, a community member and trading enthusiast, shares his insights on navigating the market as a beginner. He and Erik dive into the impacts of government shutdown news on market stability and the nuances of delayed data affecting volatility. They explore common pitfalls in trading earnings and discuss how to define 'normal' market behavior. Erik emphasizes the importance of developing intuition through consistent observation and focusing on process over daily profits, offering practical tools for traders at all levels.
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Shutdowns Lack A Persistent Edge
- Government shutdowns are a roughly 50-50 market event with no consistent directional edge across their lifespan.
- The market reliably rallies when the shutdown resolution is announced due to volatility abating.
Big Loss From A Poorly Priced Earnings Bet
- Trey described a big loss trading FI which moved ~50% and violated prior move patterns, illustrating selection risk.
- Erik used that example to show poor vol pricing and why the trade should've been a pass or much smaller.
Refuse Recurring Volatility Traps
- Avoid trading earnings in names with repeated outsized realized moves; pass if a ticker had more than two outsized moves in recent seasons.
- If a name shows two outsized moves, only enter with very high implied volatility or drastically reduced size.