China's Great Power Wars: Lessons from Imperial History for Today
Feb 13, 2025
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David C. Kang, a professor at the Korean Studies Institute at USC and co-author of "Beyond Power Transitions," explores how imperial China's history informs current East Asian geopolitics. He discusses the concept of great power peace in East Asia compared to Europe’s conflicts. Kang delves into the implications of historical interactions, why certain territories were conquered while others were not, and the potential for avoiding war in the Taiwan Strait. He also examines contemporary responses to China's rise and challenges the inevitability of a U.S.-China conflict.
East Asian historical power dynamics emphasize internal stability and cooperation over external military conflicts, contrasting sharply with European experiences.
The historical precedent shows that many conflicts in East Asia stem from internal strife rather than external invasions, highlighting the importance of governance.
Understanding the culturally rooted diplomatic relationships among East Asian nations can inform modern strategies for maintaining peace in U.S.-China relations.
Deep dives
Internal Challenges Over External Conflicts
Great power transitions in East Asia often stem from internal strife rather than external conflicts. Historical analysis indicates that many major dynastic shifts happened due to internal decay or rebellion rather than invasions by external powers. This pattern highlights the internal challenges faced by both the U.S. and China today, suggesting that these factors may be more critical in understanding their future relations than their interactions with one another. The speaker emphasizes that internal instability has historically led to the downfall of East Asian powers.
Unique Nature of Power Transitions in East Asia
The concept of power transitions traditionally framed by European experiences does not adequately apply to East Asia. Unlike European countries, which routinely engaged in land grabs and wars for power, East Asian states have generally maintained stability through complex relationships based on shared cultural understandings. The author argues that much of East Asian history showcases a consistent element of cooperation and diplomatic engagement among neighboring states, marked by stability rather than frequent warfare. Such dynamics suggest that predicting future conflicts in the region through a Eurocentric lens is misleading.
Lessons from Historical Conflicts and Alliances
Historical conflicts, such as the Mongol conquest of the Song dynasty, illustrate how internal decisions often influenced power dynamics more than direct military confrontations. The Song dynasty, despite its numerical and wealth advantages, faced collapse largely due to its internal miscalculations and distractions, particularly regarding its focus on reclaiming lost territories. This example highlights the importance of internal governance and unity as factors in the success or failure of dynasties in East Asia. The overarching message is that to understand past power transitions, one must closely examine the internal issues that prompted change rather than attributing them solely to external military pressures.
The Stability of East Asian Relationships
East Asian nations historically crafted remarkably stable relationships through shared cultural and bureaucratic understandings, which contrasts sharply with the violent competition seen in Europe. This commonality allowed countries like Korea, Japan, and Vietnam to navigate complex diplomatic waters with China, often collaborating rather than confronting, despite being smaller or weaker powers. Such interactions emphasized mutual recognition and cooperative frameworks, contributing to a relatively peaceful regional dynamic over centuries. This suggests that even amidst power imbalances, stability can be achieved through cultural affinity and diplomatic strategy.
Contemporary Implications for U.S.-China Relations
In the context of present U.S.-China relations, the historical lens reveals that the stability of East Asia underlines a need to reconsider the prevailing narrative around power transitions. Many Asian countries appear hesitant to align against China, favoring instead a balanced approach that embraces dialogue and mutual understanding over armed confrontation. This perspective is critical for U.S. policymakers, who should recognize that Asian countries value maintaining stability and existing relationships over engaging in military coalitions. Ultimately, understanding East Asian history provides insights into current dynamics, suggesting that cultural and internal factors will play significant roles in shaping the geopolitical landscape.
How has Chinese hegemony shaped power relations in East Asia? Why did imperial China conquer Tibet and Xinjiang but not Vietnam or Korea? Can learning from history help maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait?
Today’s interview begins with one shocking truth — while medieval Europe suffered under near-constant war, East Asia’s Middle Ages were defined by great power peace.
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor David C. Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at USC and co-author of Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations.
We discuss…
How East Asian nations managed to peacefully coexist for centuries,
Why lessons from European history don’t always apply in non-European contexts,
Why wars begin and how they can be avoided,
How to interpret outbreaks of violence in Asia — including conflicts with the Mongols, China’s meddling in Vietnam, and Japan’s early attempts at empire,
State behaviors that cannot be explained by power transition theory alone,
Whether the Thucydides trap makes U.S.-China war inevitable,
Old school methods for managing cross-strait relations.
Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä of the On Humans podcast.
Outro music: 荒城の月 "The Moon over the Ruined Castle" by 滝廉太郎 Rentarō Taki (Youtube link)
Cover photo of a Song Dynasty axe-wielding god https://dragonsarmory.blogspot.com/2016/12/song-chinese-armor-in-religious.html
