Ken Crompton, a market economist at NAB, shares his expert insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the weaker dollar and declining share prices ahead of Thanksgiving, highlighting how thin trading impacts markets. Ken analyzes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate decisions and hints at possible future cuts. He contrasts this with the European Central Bank's cautious stance and explores inflation trends in Germany and Australia. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on shifting economic sentiments and monetary policies.
The US dollar's significant decline reflects market sentiment and anticipated changes in monetary policy, particularly ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Central banks in Australia and Europe face inflationary pressures, complicating their monetary policy decisions despite recent reassuring economic data updates.
Deep dives
Dollar Dynamics and Market Movements
The US dollar experienced a significant decline, dropping 0.9% on the DXY index, falling below 106, despite being up 6% since the end of September. This decline was particularly pronounced against the Japanese yen, which rose by 1.3%, along with gains against the euro and pound. The adjustments in currency values appear to be influenced by market sentiment and anticipated changes in monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. As the trading was thin ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, these fluctuations likely reflect broader trends rather than strong economic indicators.
US Economic Indicators and the Fed's Outlook
Recent economic data from the United States showed no significant surprises, with the Q3 GDP remaining at 2.8% and core PCE inflation steady at 2.8%. While personal incomes increased by 0.6%, personal spending moderated slightly, suggesting a tentative consumer environment. The job market remains resilient, with jobless claims hovering around lower figures, yet there are signs of gradual weakening, indicating a tense balance for the Federal Reserve. This mixture of data points implies that while inflation pressures exist, the Fed may not need aggressive action at this time.
Inflation Trends Across Australia and Europe
Australia's inflation rate remained steady at 2.1%, but the trimmed mean measure indicated a slight rise, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures may persist. Similarly, developments in European markets showed a decline in German consumer confidence and expectations of rising CPI figures, raising concerns about the economic outlook. Central bankers, including the ECB's Isabel Schnabel, voiced skepticism about the assumptions behind cuts to interest rates, highlighting inflationary pressures that may defy easing measures. As global economies navigate through these mixed signals, the implications for monetary policy and consumer behavior remain critical.
A weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the back of largely unsurprising data from the US. There’s also discussion about Gov Orr’s presser after yesterday’s 50bp cut for the RBNZ, suggesting another big cut might be due in February. It’s the opposite message coming from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, suggesting there’s less room for cuts from the ECB. All eyes and ears will be on the RBA’s Michelle Bullock tonight, given she is never backwards incoming forward. Will she be Talking Turkey on Thanksgiving?