Bits + Bips: Ethereum and Solana ETFs and Why Crypto Is Poised for a Breakout - Ep. 668
Jul 3, 2024
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Explore the potential approval of Solana ETFs and the SEC's delay on Ethereum ETFs. Discuss how political outcomes could sway these decisions. Dive into the U.S. presidential election's impact on the crypto industry. Examine the performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in Q2 and the surprising outperformance of BONK. Delve into the reasons behind Bitcoin's recent divergence from the NASDAQ. Analyze how upcoming nonfarm payroll reports and potential rate cuts could affect market volatility and the Federal Reserve's decisions.
Political outcomes may sway Solana ETF approval, future elections affect crypto industry, SEC delays Ethereum ETF launch.
Regulated futures markets crucial for ETF approval, high premium on Grayscale's Solana Trust, potential rate cuts impact market.
Populist movements impact market dynamics, concerns over rate cuts, bond market shifts, and SEC approval processes.
Deep dives
Long Rates Tanking Due to Fiscal Concerns
Long rates, referring to bonds with the longest maturity, are currently experiencing a significant decline, with notable movements observed in the 30-year futures market. This trend is believed to be influenced by the 'Trump trade' and European political shifts, sparking market worries about fiscal responsibility.
Surprise Filings for Solana ETFs by VanEck and 21Shares
Recent surprise S1 filings by VanEck and 21Shares for Solana Trust ETFs have garnered attention. These filings, seen as a call option on Trump's potential election success, have implications on the crypto market, especially in terms of potential future regulatory dynamics and market reactions.
Impact of Regulated Futures Market on ETF Launches
The necessity of a regulated futures market for ETF launches is discussed, emphasizing the influence it holds over SEC approval decisions. While arguments suggest that it may not be essential, historical patterns indicate a preference towards such markets for ETF approval processes.
Populist Political Movements and Long-Term Market Effects
The podcast delves into the impact of populist political movements, such as the potential far-right rise in France, on long-term market dynamics. Predictions suggest that such developments may lead to changes in interest rates and bond markets, with implications for various asset classes.
Uncertainties Surrounding Rate Cuts and Market Expectations
Concerns about potential rate cuts and their impact on the market are raised, reflecting uncertainties surrounding economic data, growth projections, and Federal Reserve policies. Market participants remain vigilant about evolving macro conditions and their implications on investment strategies.
Are Solana ETFs on the brink of approval? How might political outcomes influence this decision?
Join hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann as they delve into the latest buzz around Solana’s potential spot ETFs, dissect the SEC's puzzling delay on Ethereum ETFs, and debate why Bitcoin’s recent performance has diverged from the NASDAQ.
They also discuss the U.S. presidential election, the event that Alex says was the “second most bizarre thing” he’s seen in his life, what the bond market seems to indicate about expectations for a Trump presidency, and how upcoming nonfarm payroll reports and potential rate might affect the markets.
Show highlights:
00:00 Intro
01:47 How political outcomes might influence the approval of spot Solana ETFs
04:16 Whether futures ETFs are 100% needed for an approval of spot crypto ETFs
09:26 The high premium on Grayscale's Solana Trust (GSOL)
13:50 How the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election could impact the crypto industry
20:55 Why the SEC delayed the launch of the Ethereum ETF
24:53 How the upcoming nonfarm payroll report and potential rate cuts impact market volatility and the Federal Reserve's decisions
27:51 How the rise of populist candidates in France and changes in currency markets might affect the US dollar and the broader economic landscape
31:40 How Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana performed in Q2, and the surprising outperformance of BONK
34:45 Why Bitcoin's performance diverged from the Nasdaq's recent rally
45:48 How recent movements in long-term bond rates are linked to political changes, such as the rise of right-wing populism and concerns about fiscal responsibility
52:45 How FTX creditors could potentially influence market dynamics, and the irony in the US government using Coinbase as a custodian
Hosts:
James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence