In this episode, we sit down with Luke Gromen to unpack the U.S. fiscal landscape, exploring the growing strain of true interest expense and why the world may be entering a liquidity acceleration phase. Luke highlights some of the most crowded and least crowded trades in the market today and explains why gold miners are taking on a new role, while commodity stocks resemble bonds. We also discuss the potential release valves of gold, oil, and bitcoin. Luke provides insights into the shifting dynamics of physical versus paper assets, the repricing of bonds and hard assets, and bitcoin’s potential place in central bank reserves. Additionally, we cover China’s latest economic moves, the ongoing global debt bubble, and the potential impact of the U.S. Presidential election.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

01:06 - The U.S. fiscal situation and 'true interest expense'

02:49 - U.S. fiscal tightening and liquidity needs

04:03 - 'America doesn’t get to do collectively stupid stuff with borrowed money forever'

04:51 - What is money?

07:13 - Most crowded and least crowded trades today

08:39 - 'Gold miners are the new commodity stocks, commodity stocks are the new bonds'

12:07 - The release valve: gold, oil, and maybe bitcoin

14:21 - Bitcoin miners as the new gold miners?

16:06 - The importance of physical versus paper assets

20:10 - The accelerating repricing event in bonds and hard assets

23:49 - How bitcoin and gold fit into the reserve asset narrative

33:14 - Will central banks eventually hold bitcoin?

35:00 - China’s aggressive stimulus and what it means for global markets

39:00 - The global sovereign debt bubble and the U.S. deficit

40:21 - U.S. Presidential election and fiscal largesse

41:59 - Repricing of gold and bitcoin

49:10 - What most bitcoiners disagree with Luke on

50:24 - The biggest risks to bitcoin and gold

55:00 - Outro and where to find more of Luke’s work

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