Jes, an infectious disease epidemiologist and science communicator, discusses the recent summer surge in COVID-19 cases. She explains how behavioral changes and viral mutations contribute to this annual pattern. The conversation touches on the role of wastewater data in monitoring cases and the importance of personal responsibility in public health. Jes also addresses vaccination strategies, the emergence of FLIRT variants, and offers practical advice for staying safe as we head into the fall, highlighting the challenges of tracking respiratory viruses.
The summer surge in COVID-19 cases is driven by behavioral changes, viral mutations, and waning immunity, increasing transmission risks.
Although COVID-19 cases are rising, the population's growing immunity has resulted in relatively lower hospitalization rates this summer.
Deep dives
Factors Behind the Summer COVID Surge
The summer surge of COVID-19 can be attributed to three main factors: behavioral changes, viral mutations, and waning immunity. As temperatures rise, people tend to seek relief indoors where air conditioning is available, leading to increased gatherings and a higher risk of transmission. Concurrently, the virus has been evolving, with mutations that enhance its ability to infect individuals and evade immune responses. Additionally, as time passes since vaccination or previous infection, immunity decreases, making people more susceptible to reinfection.
Current Variant and Hospitalization Trends
The current COVID-19 variant known as FLIRT, along with its subvariants, has shown an ability to spread widely, primarily due to waning immunity in the population. Despite an increase in cases, hospitalization rates are not as high as in previous summers, which reflects the greater population immunity that has developed over time. The reliance on wastewater data indicates a shift in how COVID-19 is monitored, leading to gaps in understanding the true prevalence of the virus. Such factors suggest that while the situation remains serious, the community has gained some level of resilience against severe outcomes.
Staying Safe Amid COVID Challenges
To minimize risk during the ongoing pandemic, it's crucial for individuals to remain vigilant by continuing to follow health guidelines such as wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces and getting vaccinated on schedule. As public perception shifts towards viewing COVID-19 as an endemic virus, complacency can increase risk exposure, especially during summer months. Maintaining good public health practices like testing when symptomatic and isolating when sick is necessary to protect both oneself and others. Ultimately, adapting to the ongoing presence of COVID-19 will require continuous commitment to preventive measures and a flexible approach to personal safety.
It may seem like everyone is either getting COVID-19 this summer, or knows someone who has. That’s because for the fourth year in a row, COVID cases are experiencing a summer surge.
The CDC now tracks COVID-19 mostly through wastewater and found that viral activity has multiplied more than four times from the beginning of May to now. The CDC classifies the viral activity level as “high.”
So what’s behind this surge? And why does it keep happening in the summer?
SciFri’s John Dankosky talks with Jessica Malaty Rivera, infectious disease epidemiologist and science communicator at the de Beaumont Foundation, about what’s behind the surge and how to stay safe.
Transcripts for each segment will be available after the show airs on sciencefriday.com.