Gideon Rachman and Emile Hawkaim discuss the current situation in Gaza and explore the potential impact of the fighting. They also discuss the growing concerns about humanitarian consequences and the potential for a wider war in the Middle East. Additionally, they highlight the consequences of Western complacency and the importance of recognizing ongoing challenges in the Middle East. The podcast also delves into Saudi Arabia's potential role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and discusses expectations for the next few weeks in Gaza.
The Israeli strategy aims to weaken Hamas militarily by reducing its rockets, tunnels, and fighters, but completely eradicating the organization is not realistic.
The international community faces the challenge of providing aid and stabilizing Gaza while considering a political horizon and the potential for a two-state solution.
Deep dives
Israel's objective in Gaza is to isolate Gaza City from the rest of the Gaza Strip
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are driving south along the coast and cutting north to split Gaza City from the rest of Gaza. This is done to diminish the rockets from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad into Israeli territory. The Israeli strategy aims to put pressure on Gaza City, potentially driving civilians to leave and creating corridors for humanitarian assistance.
Achieving the complete destruction of Hamas is unlikely; Hamas will remain a weakened insurgent force
While it is possible to significantly weaken Hamas militarily by reducing its rockets, tunnels, and fighters, completely destroying the organization is not realistic. Hamas is likely to continue as an insurgent force in Gaza and still has support among the Palestinian population. Therefore, the focus should be on diminishing their military capabilities rather than eradicating Hamas entirely.
The future of Gaza remains uncertain, with questions about governance and the role of external actors
The day after the conflict in Gaza, there are concerns about the infrastructure, governance, and the presence of Hamas. Israel sees itself having to control the security situation in Gaza for the foreseeable future, which implies a de facto occupation. The international community faces the challenge of providing aid and stabilizing the region while considering a political horizon and the potential for a two-state solution. However, the immediate focus should be on managing the ongoing crisis and preventing further escalation.
Gideon talks to Emile Hokayem, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, about Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. How long is it likely to last and what will be the repercussions for Israel and the wider region? Clips: Channel 4 News; AFP