Ex-MI6 Chief & Senior CIA Official on Iran's Next Moves
Apr 18, 2024
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Former MI6 Chief and ex-National Intelligence Manager for Iran discuss Iran's escalating threats towards Israel, predicting Tehran's next moves and testing new 'red lines'. They delve into the complexity of Middle East dynamics, including the crisis effects on U.S. policy, Iran's nuclear program, and the challenges in the region.
Iran's repeated crossing of red lines without consequences calls into question the efficacy of deterrence and the challenges in addressing its nuclear ambitions.
Despite recent escalations, there is a strategic effort to contain conflicts within certain bounds, reflecting a delicate balance to prevent uncontrollable conflicts and maintain restraint.
Deep dives
Collapsing Deterrence and Red Lines
Iran's behavior over the years has shown a collapse of deterrence, with red lines being repeatedly crossed without significant consequences. Despite various provocations including incidents like piracy and terrorism, the lack of substantial repercussions has emboldened Iran to push boundaries further. This has raised concerns about the effectiveness of deterrence and the potential implications for addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions and maintaining stability in the region.
Reluctance to Escalate Conflicts Kinetically
There appears to be a general reluctance among involved parties to escalate conflicts kinetically, aiming to contain conflicts within certain bounds. Although recent events have shown escalations such as direct assaults on Israel, there is a delicate balance in place to prevent full-blown conflicts. The hesitance to respond with direct military force reflects a strategic effort to avoid further escalation and maintain a level of restraint.
Iran's Strategic Calculations in Recent Attacks
Iran's recent attacks, while demonstrating military capabilities, also reveal strategic calculations to avoid significant escalations. The precision and nature of the attacks, such as the drone strikes, suggest a careful approach to messaging and potential retaliation. Despite some tactical successes, like hitting an Israeli runway, Iran seems keen on sending messages without triggering uncontrollable conflicts.
Regional Dynamics and Economic Pressures
The evolving dynamics in the Middle East highlight a complex interplay of regional forces, including the involvement of key Arab states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia in defense measures. Economic pressures, sanctions, and internal unrest pose challenges for Iran, affecting its proxy activities. The region's delicate balance reflects a cautious approach to managing tensions and avoiding full-scale conflicts.
Norman Roule served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing significant programs related to the Middle East, including his role as National Intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 to 2017. Roule joins guest host and journalist Christina Ruffini and One Decision's resident spymaster, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove, to discuss the new security threats in the Middle East after Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel. Roule says Tehran will test the limits of the "new red lines" to keep Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, and others under pressure in a quagmire in the region. They also discuss how the crisis will change U.S. Middle East policy, the status of Iran's nuclear program, and predictions on the Islamic Republic's next steps.
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