The Changelog: Software Development, Open Source Complex systems & second-order effects (Interview)
12 snips
Jan 10, 2022 
Paul Orlando, an author focused on systems and complexity, discusses the unintended consequences of large-scale systems. He delves into Goodhart's Law and the Cobra Effect, shedding light on how metrics can mislead decision-making. The conversation also explores the intricacies of designing effective incentive systems and the challenges of autonomous vehicles. With anecdotes from technology and healthcare, Orlando highlights the broader implications of innovation and the need for mindful approaches in an interconnected society.
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Goodhart's Law
- Goodhart's Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
- This happens because people optimize for the metric instead of the actual goal.
Groupon's Vanity Metric
- Groupon inflated their employee count in China before their IPO to boost the perceived company value.
- This tactic aimed to increase the IPO price, not to build a sustainable business.
The Cobra Effect
- The Cobra Effect describes when attempts to solve a problem worsen it.
- A classic example is offering a bounty for cobra skins, leading to cobra farming and a subsequent cobra surplus.
