Odd Lots

Viktor Shvets Declares Victory for Team Transitory and the Soft Landing

Feb 1, 2023

Viktor Shvets, a global strategist at Macquarie Capital, argues that the 'transitory' inflation narrative is gaining traction again, as inflation falls while unemployment stays low. He explores how recent optimism is fueled by China's economic reopening and the potential for a soft landing. Shvets discusses deglobalization and its complex effect on inflation, emphasizing that geopolitical risks may not play out as expected. He also highlights the shifting relationships between central banks and market behaviors amid evolving economic dynamics.

47:16

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Episode guests

Viktor Shvets

Highlights

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Episode notes

The Unintended Consequences of the COVID Crisis

01:21

Intro

2min

Inflation Sentiment Shifts

5min

Navigating the Complexities of Modern Inflation

4min

Inflation Trends Amid Deglobalization

21min

Navigating Central Bank Dynamics and Market Reactions

6min

Financial Conditions and Inflation Dynamics

10min

Navigating Economic Signals and Geopolitical Pressures

3min

It was looking bad there for awhile for Team Transitory. Anyone who had previously even uttered the word "transitory" in regards to inflation was regretting having used it. But lately the term is creeping back in, particularly as inflation decelerates while the unemployment rate remains low. So was the transitory perspective right all along? And is the fabled "soft landing" actually here? Macquarie Capital strategist Viktor Shvets believes it is. On this episode, the return Odd Lots guest gives his view of the economy and why he never gave up on his transitory stance. He talks about why inflation is falling and how many sources of anxiety — from geopolitical risk to deglobalization — won't materialize in the manner that many people are expecting.

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