NAB Morning Call Housing hotter ahead of RBA forecasts
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Nov 3, 2025 Join Sally Auld, NAB Markets economist, as she dissects the booming Australian housing market with rising prices and increased dwelling approvals. She explains how RBA policy doesn't target house prices directly but acknowledges that wealth effects influence consumer behavior. The conversation also dives into the latest US manufacturing numbers, highlighting a two-speed economy, tariff impacts on smaller firms, and insights into China’s export struggles. Auld offers a glimpse into NAB's forecasts and the RBA’s cautious approach ahead.
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US Manufacturing: Orders Up, Demand Lagging
- US ISM and PMI continue to show manufacturing weakness with weak employment despite new orders rising.
- PMI notes record-high inventories, suggesting firms front-loaded stock but face weaker-than-expected final demand.
Tariffs Hitting Smaller Manufacturers' Margins
- Smaller and non-large-cap US manufacturers report trade-policy pain, with many blaming tariffs for weaker activity.
- Sally notes firms may absorb tariff costs through narrower margins rather than passing them to consumers.
China PMIs Signal Slower Growth And Price Pressure
- China's PMIs show slower expansion and falling selling prices, with export orders taking the biggest hit.
- The survey predates a diplomatic truce, so recent developments could change near-term export outlooks.