Get Rich Education 536: Why the Housing Crisis is Pushing Homelessness to Catastrophic Heights
Discover the latest global real estate trends and untapped investment opportunities. Keith uncovers high-yield new build rental properties that can deliver impressive returns, even in today's challenging market. Don't miss your chance to build lasting wealth through strategic real estate investing. Tune in now to get the insider insights you need to get ahead.
The podcast dives into dramatic global real estate trends, with home prices skyrocketing over 10% in countries like Colombia and the Netherlands.
It also examines the alarming rise in U.S. homelessness, driven by factors like housing shortages and inflation.
To counter these challenges, the show spotlights compelling new-build rental properties that could offer attractive returns for passive investors.
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Complete episode transcript:
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Keith Weinhold 0:02
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we look at global home price change, the asset class rundown, then the homelessness crisis is mega bad. It just reached new, unprecedented levels, and real estate and inflation has a lot to do with the homelessness surge today on get rich education.
Speaker 1 0:28
Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com
Corey Coates 1:13
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 1:29
Welcome to GRE from Kent Washington to Tashkent, Uzbekistan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. One reason for a not just national, but global, rise in real estate prices is that you can't fake it. Real property is not a derivative, yeah, you can't fake it. So this really emphasizes the word real in real estate. It's not a crypto within infinite supply. It's not an NFT. You can't fake construction. You can't fake real materials put into property, from concrete to kitchen cabinets. So in the year recently ended, as we catch up to global home prices and select nations, per Fitch Ratings. Let's do that because it was not just a US centric thing. In the Netherlands, the home price change last year was 13% you had that much appreciation in the Netherlands. Colombia, 10% Mexico up 9.3% Brazil had 8% home price appreciation. Australia, 5.2% Australia has just seen year over year home price appreciation for such a long time. The UK had 5% appreciation. Spain, 5% as well. The USA, 4% just like I predicted at the end of 2023 for 2024 It did indeed come in at 4% Canada also had exactly 4% home price appreciation last year, just like the USA did. Denmark 3% Italy and Japan each at two and a half percent. Germany home prices were up just one and a half percent. And France had home prices that fell 3% China had home prices that fell 7.8% that supply versus demand thing in China, where they massively overbuilt, that's why home prices are down there. And as I unveil the depths of the USS homelessness crisis later here on the show, you will see that, yeah, those appreciated real estate prices, like I just mentioned, they have a lot to do with it. Now you might think of the youngest generation, the generation after Gen Z, as generation alpha, and that is true. However, they are no longer the youngest generation, because the babies born on New Year's Day of this year not only got to be featured in feel good local news stories. You know what? They are, also the first members of generation, beta, yeah, which will include children born from 2025 through 2039 so that is the future and the future demographic that's going to demand housing. But first of all, let's look at a year that was yes for years here on the show, we have our asset class rundown shortly after most quarters end, and certainly after a year ends. And today is no different, and this is because at times you've got to compare real estate with the other investment options that are out there. We now have music to play for our asset class rundown feature each time for today and. Future shows. And I know the GRE sound engineer has got to like this. He's also a DJ dropit, Vedrand. Here is GRE 's asset class rundown for the 12 months of last year, residential real estate values were up 4% per the NARS. Single Family existing home price, like I said earlier, single family rents up about 2% per core logic, apartment rents pretty flat, down six tenths of 1% for the year per apartment list, office buildings were down in value 9% the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It started last year at 6.6% everyone, I mean, everyone, thought that they would go lower, but nope, they ended at 6.9% a little higher. That's per Freddie Mac survey. The s5&p 100 index was up over 23% topping out at 6100 last year. That is the first time the s&p has been up 20% plus in back to back years since 1998 and the s&p is meant to represent 500 companies, but it has become so concentrated due to the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks that its effective diversification is less than 60 stocks. Morgan Stanley just announced that they expect the SP500, 100 returns to be flat for the next decade due to lofty valuations. Do you know that since 2000 gold has outperformed the s&p last year, gold shot up from about $2,000 peaked near $2,800 and then ended up about 30% for last year, the yield on the 10 year T note was up 63 basis points last year, basically rising from four up to 4.6% by year end. What that means is that that signals higher inflation expectations. Bitcoin up an astounding 111% to end last year around 95k and it topped out at an all time high of 108k oil up just 2% to 72 bucks and a wild card for you. Through October, Bible sales were up 22% compared to the same period versus the previous year. That is GRE 's asset class rundown. It was.
This is get rich education. Let's drop back and do some learning before I update you on housing and the homelessness crisis. Now, a lot of Americans don't really know history that well, and not very many have a good financial education either. But you know, it is quite possible that even the next person you spot in a Trader Joe's aisle has heard of Adam Smith in his landmark 1776 book The Wealth of Nations. Did you know that Adam Smith is the one credited with actually inventing the very concept of supply and demand? Yeah, Adam Smith, a Scotsman is credited with that. He is known as the father of modern economics. You might have already known that. Well, of course, supply versus demand seems to be a more relevant concept than usual. Here with the housing shortage crisis, Adam Smith, he proposed the idea of what he called an invisible hand, that is the tendency of free markets to regulate themselves using competition, supply and demand and self interest, a Darwinian sort of struggle. Really, did you know that he also created the concept of gross domestic product? Yeah, prior to Adam Smith's work, most people considered a nation's wealth based on the amount of gold and silver reserves that they had stored. But Adam Smith said no, it's more about productivity quantified in this GDP in a lot of his work. It also discusses the evolution of human society from a hunter stage with no property rights and no fixed residences, to nomadic agriculture with shifting residences. And then the next stage after that is a feudal society, where laws and property rights are established to protect privileged classes. And finally, that modern society is characterized by laissez faire or free markets, so a good chunk of Adam Smith's work revolved around real estate. Now, the history of economics like that is a phrase that sounds boring. Maybe it is to some people, but as an investor, the least that you should know about Adam Smith's landmark book The Wealth of Nations from the year 1776 is that to review, he invented the supply demand concept. He created the GDP concept, and he championed free markets. That's something you're going to appreciate knowing in your investor life. And also supply demand, as I discussed that in the homelessness problem shortly.
we are a real estate show, and, you know, I just don't hear other real estate shows talk about, well, the unfortunate, I guess, absence of real estate in an increasing number of people's lives now, even if you have a home, learn about how homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. In fact, it already has. I'm not sure if you've noticed, I will get into that as well. First listen to these two spots, freedom, family investments for an eight to 10% return on your liquid capital and Ridge lending group, they specialize in income property loans. They can really help you, and I would know, because I use them both my self. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education. Here you go.
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Ken McElroy 12:41
this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 12:57
Welcome back. You're listening to get rich education Episode 536, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it is bad. America just hit a record high homelessness number, and it is up double digits, over 18% in just one year. It is even worse when we look at family homelessness and the rise in that and gosh, get this unaccompanied youth homeless, meaning like a 15 year old kid homeless and drifting by themselves. And this is all in the most powerful nation in the world. And even if you have a home. Homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. We'll also look at how Trump wants to address this. It is major. And finally, are there any solutions to the homelessness crisis in America today? Well, there are now over 771,000 homeless in America, that's up from 653k just last year. And yes, the homeless can be hard to count, but as long as the methodology stays the same, I mean, there you go with the 18% increase. And here's the thing from all the years, from 2007 to 2023, all 16 of those years, we only saw a total increase of 19% during that entire span, and now 18% in just one year this latest year. I mean, talk about exponential and accelerating homelessness growth. And before I tell you about why this is happening, let's get a better idea of the gravity of this sad situation here, and this is all from HUD's newly released annual homelessness assessment report to Congress among subgroups families with children saw the biggest increase as. At 39% year over year. You think that's sad, but consider how sad this is. Unaccompanied homeless children, they're up 10% in just a year, and that was only up 3.4% all of the previous 16 years combined. Veterans are the only group to see a decrease, and the number of homeless people over 65 so we're talking seniors here that is expected to almost triple by 2030 that is just five years away, and it is just widespread too. I mean, nearly no US geography is immune from this spike in homelessness, from Florida to Maine to California to Alaska. Now, even if you have a home, the shoes of that are pretty good, if you're listening to me, you know, why does this even make your life worse? Well, of course, first of all, homelessness can make your city blighted. But beyond that, just think about how many ways it's just changing your week in and week out routine. I mean, have you noticed, like, just take, for example, when you or I walk into some grocery stores anymore. I mean, I notice how different things are than they were just say, five years ago. I mean, you've got to notice some of these things now, more often than there was just a few years ago, there's an armed guard when you walk into a store near the entrance. Well, someone is paying for that security, whether it's the store passing the price along to you, or whether it's a government or municipality paying that, well, that's where your tax money goes. And what about when you're shopping the aisles of a supermarket, or, say, CVS? Well, now even kind of moderately priced items like bottles of moisturizer, they are under lock and key behind a Plexiglas case. That's inconvenient while you're shopping if you need to use the bathroom, oh, now you need to go get a key or learn the door code to access the bathrooms. That's inconvenient when you're done and as you walk out of the store now, they are more likely to have an attendant that checks your receipts on the way out, and this is just one example at the supermarket. I mean, so many of your patterns are changing due to poor people getting poorer, and the homelessness crisis, if you're in a rural area, it probably affects you less. But just take a look around and notice the change. We're not talking about the change from your parents era, but just in your own life over the past, say, three to five years, homelessness is not good for an area's crime rate either. I mean, it is not good to have desperate people, hungry people, these people have nothing to lose if you're homeless and you commit a crime and go to jail. Hey, that might be an upgrade for some people now you've got a warm, clean place to stay in jail. So now that you and I understand more about why this even affects you and I let's talk about why is homelessness growing at this alarming rate, well, higher prices for real estate, which really accelerated in 2021 and they are not going to relent. As I've said elsewhere, home prices are not going to go down in a meaningful way anytime soon as just three weeks ago. Here on our forecast episode, I forecast another 5% of national home price appreciation this year. And it's not just higher prices, it's higher rents. Rents really started taking off in 2021 as well. Well. Higher rents, that means more evictions, and an eviction is the start of homelessness for a lot of people. And a third reason for this surge in homelessness is just that overall lack of housing. I have covered that extensively elsewhere. Yes, the housing supply crisis, and as I'm known for saying, the housing crash already occurred. Did you miss it? It was a supply crash that occurred about five years ago, and a lot of agencies think we're under supplied by 3.7 million housing units. Now, when you look at the new HUD supplied map of homelessness by state, you can very much see that it is about housing, because those regions with the highest home prices generally have the most homelessness. We're talking about the Northeast, the West Coast and Hawaii. And the fourth reason for the homelessness surge is that, of course, inflation started accelerating about four years ago, and people just cannot make ends meet anymore. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% back. In June of 2022 and year over year, prices are still going up 3% today. Prices are not going down. They're just rising at a slower rate. And of course, inflation hurts the poor and actually helps the wealthy, exacerbating the inequality Canyon the wealthy have assets. Those assets float up in value with inflation and the prices at the grocery store are just a tiny part of a wealthy person spending. But the poor don't own assets that float up with the inflation and higher grocery prices and things like electric bills, well, they comprise a big part of a poor person's income. And fifthly, the massive arrival of immigrants pushed up homeless numbers these past, oh, three or so years. And it remains to be seen how many of those people really get deported. And you know, a sixth reason for homelessness. It's not something new, it's what I'll call all of these background reasons that have been there for decades and are not going away, like how a medical emergency can even drain a middle class person's savings and things like ongoing substance abuse. I mean, drug users often cannot stay employed. So there you have it. What was that? Six big reasons that I've identified for surging homelessness now let's see what Donald Trump has to say and understand that, due to last June Supreme Court decision, Trump now has got more power to clear out encampments and make life for the homeless more difficult, opening the door now to be criminally charged for trespassing and illegal camping. I mean, you really don't want to be homeless today as part of what Trump calls his agenda 47 his plan to tackle homelessness. Here is his preamble.
Donald Trump 21:57
Our once great cities have become unlivable, unsanitary nightmares surrendered to the homeless, the drug addicted and the violent and dangerously deranged. We're making many suffer for the whims of a deeply unwell few, and they are unwell. Indeed, the homeless have no right to turn every park and sidewalk into a place for them to squat and do drugs. Americans should not have to step over piles of needles and waste as they walk down a street in a beautiful city, or at least once beautiful city, because they've changed so much over the last 10 years.
Keith Weinhold 22:40
So that's the problem. Here's the solution. I'll boil down the meat of the Trump agenda, 47 homeless statement to just the most salient 40 seconds for you here. Just listen to this, and as you listen in closely, note that this is not a housing first plan for the homeless. Instead, it's treatment first.
Donald Trump 23:03
Under my strategy, working with states, we will ban urban camping wherever possible. Violators of these bans will be arrested, but they will be given the option to accept treatment and services if they're willing to be rehabilitated. Many of them don't want that, but we'll give them the option. We will then open up large parcels of inexpensive land, bring in doctors, psychiatrists, social workers and drug rehab specialists, and create tent cities where the homeless can be relocated and their problems identified. But we'll open up our cities again, make them livable and make them beautiful.
Keith Weinhold 23:43
Okay, it's not housing first, because, see, he wants to ban urban camping, something that parallels the Supreme Court decision. What this is not is that it is not giving the homeless hotels in the city, like some cities have recently done, converting their hotels into homeless shelters. Instead, this is designating large parcels of cheap land for tent cities, but outside the urban core, like in a big grassy lot, and then bringing in social workers and rehab specialists for them, and that way, his solution is that this city is free of homeless people, and really that is the crux of Trump's plan. But what are some other solutions here? And these are now my insights, not Trump's, that is, build more housing. That's really simple. I mean, this will naturally slow down, accelerating home prices and spiking rents, and we've got to relax regulation and zoning. We had a zoning expert, Nolan gray on the show here last year. Some scholars believe that we should just eliminate zoning in America completely. And one. One way to relax regulation is to Gosh, revisit some of these over the top safety concerns. I mean, look, it increases the cost of the most basic entry level housing when every home needs to have all these thick, fire rated doors and smoke detectors all over the place, and carbon monoxide detectors everywhere, and GFCI electrical outlets all over the place. I mean, hey, it sounds kind of funny to say out loud, but all this stuff contributes to making affordable housing impossible. And another solution is that you've got to kill nimbyism in a lot of cases, yes, that not in my backyard. Ism, you know, a person can act like they're all pro development, and like they're all free market, and they want to have their home built just how they want it, where they want it, but you know what, as soon as their home was built, they don't want others moving near them, yeah, somehow the free market's not so great anymore, okay? And they sure don't want apartment buildings nearby. Well, that is what we need, allowing taller structures to be built. That is called up zoning. It doesn't have to be a gigantic apartment building either. We need more, mmm, properties, multi families, missing middle. That means building more two, three and four unit structures in single family neighborhoods, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, because a lot of those can be built so that they look like single family homes. But yet it's something affordable and it helps with density. Another solution to deal with homelessness is to, of course, bring down inflation. The government needs to stop printing, say, $1 trillion to pay for a program, whether that's sending aid to foreign nations or whatever that program is. When more dollars are created like that, it debases the currency everyone else is holding on to, including your dollars, and it makes everyone from landlords to grocers have to raise their prices. And you know, here's the funny thing in the last election for president that we had last year, well, that administration got voted out of office, and many say that the number one reason was due to high inflation, but yet, look at what they voted for with the incoming administration. Everyone expects higher inflation. So there's a real paradox there.
On our YouTube channel, you can watch videos of me going out outdoors and interviewing the homeless. In fact, I'm surprised at how many homeless let me into their tents, and they wanted to show me their makeshift shelters and tell me about their life. I mean, that's kind of the good news. They were open. They were friendly people. I think they really wanted that to get exposed, because they were hoping that people would see that to come do something for them. I think that's why they've been so open with me. So that was good on the flip side, oh gosh. One thing that they have in common is that they all seemingly want to blame somebody else for the condition that they're in other than themselves, like the government or including telling me that landlords are greedy. But it really is fascinating to see from our get rich education YouTube channel, which is different content from this show. Just search the word homeless there on the get rich education YouTube channel and you can see it.
Hey, I want to ask you something. What is your on ramp to real estate investing? Like, how did you approach it? Or how did you get into it? I mean, mine was as a disgruntled employee. That's it. I didn't come from a complimentary professional place. I mean, that's how I became an investor, and there was nothing wrong with my job position. Specifically, I worked with good people and everything. In fact, I had an easy and safe job, and it paid a little bit well. But, you know, safe is not the place to be. Safety is the opposite of freedom. As an employee, you know, I could see that 401 K type plans. They were designed so that you don't get income from them until you're old. It's a salary reduction plan all those working years as well. Well, no wonder that your employer encourages participation in them. That way they're going to keep you working as an employee until retirement, because that's when they're designed to generate income. But see my point here, really is that I did not have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing, and if you do, it can be to your advantage. So you know what I mean. Let's take a couple of friends of. The show here, Robert Helms, host of the terrific real estate guys radio show. He came from a real estate agent family. His dad was an agent. Well, that can help you find deals. How about Ken McElroy, another frequent guest on the show here, very successful real estate investor. Well, he was a property manager before he became a real estate investor, totally complementary skill set. And by the way, two months ago in New Orleans, I was invited to participate in a collective inner circle mastermind group session that Robert and Ken help run. That was cool, but getting back to complementary skill sets, Michael Becker, a former guest here on the show, he was a lender, so he got to see the paperwork of all these successful investors. So he became one himself. I mean, as a lender, you keep seeing savvy investors leverage themselves with debt and then do cash out refinances, a tax free windfall event, all while they keep the asset too well. He wanted to get in on some of that. And I also know real estate investors that started out as handymen, okay, a hands on trade that can totally help when you're starting out as a real estate investor. So do you have a complimentary skill set that can help make you a successful real estate investor. If you don't, then don't despair, because you know what? I don't have one myself. I was just a former employee that wanted something else. I don't have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing. No transferable professional skill. Instead of that, I just became a reader, but not a massive reader. Of course, I was a learner before I was a teacher. I enjoyed learning this stuff, and I also got a good grasp on the numbers and how that works. But importantly, my advantage was I take action, I just keep adding property to my portfolio. You just got to keep doing that, regardless of what's happening in the larger economy or what prices are or what interest rates are.
And as you know, last week, I discussed the advantages of owning and building with brand new build rental property today, and you know, new build and these build to rent properties, those are things that that really wasn't even available when I started out investing. Well, it wasn't. I mean, with new build, oh, your maintenance repair costs are going to be low. You tend to attract a high quality tenant that also tends to stay for a while. Insurance costs tend to be lower on new build. And there's a bigger advantage than all of that in the market cycle right now that I'll get into shortly. Well, historically, the long run average. Do you have any idea what proportion of homes for sale are new build homes? Any guess, like, what share of those homes are new? It's only about one in eight. Yeah, the Census Bureau and the NAR tell us that it's 13% historically. Okay, well, what do you think it is today? Well, today, that number is up. Existing homeowners, they're not selling those homes aren't getting on the market as often due to the lock in effect, and we have to add supply. So in order to do that, we are building more new there's just no other way to bring it to market. Well, today, the proportion of new build homes for sale among all homes for sale is fully double that, at 26% although we're still undersupplied of homes in the US by about 30% you know there are pockets where they've overbuilt with new builds, including in Florida and Texas. So the time could really be right to expand your income property portfolio in one of those places, because builders that we work with at GRE marketplace are really willing to give you a deal now you've got them right where you want them if you're looking for a deal. How does a four and three quarter percent interest rate sound? Yes. Rates on non owner occupied property are about eight right now. They're about seven on owner occupied property, but we've got builders willing to buy your rate down to 4.75% and they're also offering one year of free property management and three months of rent guarantee protection in case your property is not occupied right away. The first one is a brand new build duplex in Inverness, Florida, two beds, two baths, each side, price of 420k projected rent from both sides at $2,830 and the size is 2100 square feet. I mean the. That sounds like it could make your cash flow thin, until you consider that 4.75% fixed mortgage rate the property tax is about one and a half percent and insurance get this projected at just $1,155 a year for an entire new build duplex, and now you might ask, what could the rate of return be on this Florida duplex new build? Well, I projected 5% appreciation for this year. New builds tend to appreciate better than existing property, but let's just use 5% if you have a 25% down payment, that's four to one leverage. So you've got a 20% return on your money. And let's just keep it conservative. When we look at monthly cash flow, that results in a 5% cash on cash return. Add that to your 20% leverage appreciation, you're up to a 25% ROI already. Add in the fact that your tenant is paying down your principal for you by $405 every month. That's 4860 annually, divided by your 105k down payment. That means you've got another four and a half percent return here. Let's just call it four. You're up to a 29% total ROI we haven't even added in yet, your tax depreciation benefit, and now you're up to a return in the mid 30s. Finally, your inflation profiting benefit on your fixed amortizing debt, and you are well into the 40s for a percent return on an annual basis. And of course, most of these are only projections. It could disappoint you at 30 or less, still a nice return, or it could over perform at 50% or more. I mean, this right here is how wealth is built. I mean, this is how you do something that disrupts your entire family tree that was the new build duplex. Then I'll share one other one with you. Here from GRE marketplace. Is a single family rental. This one is in Locust Grove, Georgia. Gosh, it looks really good in the photo here with a two car garage and some brick facing, its price is 339k rent is 2350 The size is 2164 square feet, so only a little bigger than the duplex here in this new build, Georgia, single family rental, four beds, two baths, beautiful looking new construction on the inside, open floor plan, stainless steel appliances, I can't tell whether the floor is LVP or wood laminate, but it's got a flooring type that's resilient, that tenants like, and your rate of return is going to be similar to the duplex ROI that I laid out, though probably not quite as high as the duplex. I mean, with these interest rate buy downs, these could very well be the property types where, in just five years time, maybe even as little as two or three years time after owning them, you look back and you consider how opportunistic you work in this part of the market cycle where there are now more new builds that you can choose from, and a builder was willing To make you a deal to keep their product moving, because they build a little too much in some pockets of Florida, for example. So yes, these and more like them are available, and there are more in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and a number of other states. And you know, something I don't think I shared with you earlier, it's convenient. You can get a spot with one of our GRE investment coaches right on their calendars, you can look at their calendar and pick a date and time that's convenient for you. For a free coaching session, they will learn about you. They'll let you know where the real deals are, if they're right for you at all, all you've got to do is visit GRE marketplace.com, and click on the free investment coaching area. There you are with some real opportunities and an actionable resource. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.
Speaker 2 39:17
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you
Keith Weinhold 39:45
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com