The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

The Global Stakes of the U.S. Election: Debt, The Dollar, and Military Power | Reality Roundtable #12

Oct 27, 2024

In this fascinating discussion, Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, and Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank Singapore, delve into the high-stakes implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. They explore the potential economic strategies of both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, focusing on the future of the U.S. dollar and military power's impact on global stability. The conversation also addresses China's use of gold and NATO's actions in Ukraine, examining their effects on international financial relationships and energy resources.

01:15:22

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Michael Every

Luke Gromen

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Quick takeaways

The podcast emphasizes that focusing solely on GDP growth without moral considerations can lead to detrimental societal outcomes.

The analysis highlights the unsustainable nature of the U.S. economic policies, predicting a reliance on money printing to cover national debt obligations regardless of the winning candidate.

The dialogue stresses the urgency for innovative energy policies and domestic resource management to enhance economic resilience and reduce foreign dependency.

Deep dives

Understanding GDP and Societal Goals

A central question addressed is the purpose of GDP and what kind of society we aspire to create. It is emphasized that simply focusing on GDP growth without reflecting on moral values and societal objectives can lead to negative outcomes. The discussion advocates for a broader understanding of economic success, suggesting that the true measure of progress should incorporate the well-being and values of society. This perspective urges policymakers to consider not just economic metrics but also the ethical implications of their decisions.

Intro

4min

Economic Implications of the U.S. Election

8min

Exploring the Strategic Use of Tariffs for Economic Reshaping

2min

Rethinking Monetary Policy and Natural Resources

24min

Monetary Policy and Global Dynamics

19min

Growth vs. Sustainability: A Global Dilemma

7min

China's Economic Strategies and Global Trade Dynamics

9min

Exploring Bitcoin's Role in Economic Discourse

3min

(Conversation recorded on October 16th, 2024)

Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, both of whom have distinct monetary and fiscal policies, there is much debate on the potential systemic consequences for the global economy. What is the current status of the United States in the socio-political landscape, and how might trends in energy, commodities, and geopolitical tension affect the actions and capabilities of the next U.S. presidential administration? In turn, how could this affect the global economy?

In this roundtable discussion, Nate is joined by financial analysts Luke Gromen and Michael Every to explore the precarious nature of current fiscal practices, the relationship between military power and economic stability, and the potential need for radical policy shifts worldwide. They also delve into the future of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and the importance of price, availability, and stability of energy resources for thinking about future economic strategies.

What are the implications of NATO's actions in Ukraine for global financial relationships, and what are the resulting strategic dilemmas for Europe? How is China potentially using gold to prepare for a fundamentally different economy with fewer resources? Most of all, how can we begin to steward our economic systems in a more sustainable direction if we don’t have a shared understanding of the values and goals that underpin everything we’re doing, regardless of who the next U.S. President may be?

About Michael Every:

Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis. Michael has lived and worked in 9 countries and been in the industry for nearly 25 years, with previous roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet. He holds a BA from Lancaster University, and a master’s degree from University College London.

About Luke Gromen:

Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of research firm Forest For The Trees, LLC, whose goal is to aggregate a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for clients. Luke founded FFTT to apply what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America. Luke has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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