The Probability of Collapse with Col. Drew Miller – Epi-3575
Oct 23, 2024
auto_awesome
Col. Drew Miller, a retired Air Force Colonel and founder of Fortitude Ranch, shares his expertise on societal collapse and preparedness. He discusses government's calculated odds on collapse triggers and the vulnerabilities of the U.S. electric grid. The conversation delves into civil unrest and the risks of political polarization, especially during elections. Miller emphasizes the urgent need for personal and community readiness against threats like pandemics and technological advancements, advocating for self-sufficiency and flexible survival strategies.
The probability of societal collapse has been estimated between 16% and 50%, reflecting diverse interpretations of potential risks each year.
Aggregating 49 low-probability triggers reveals a significant overall risk of collapse, necessitating vigilant preparation for unforeseen events.
Complacency often arises from misunderstandings of statistical information, making it crucial to recognize the real dangers of low-probability events.
Preparedness involves not just individual safety but also community cohesion, fostering shared resources and emergency plans among members.
Historical precedents of societal collapse illustrate the rapid nature of decline, underscoring the importance of resilience and proactive survival strategies.
Deep dives
Probability of Collapse
The discussion highlights the perceived probabilities of societal collapse, estimated annually between 16% and 50%. This range reflects varying interpretations of data related to potential threats and events that could lead to systemic failure. Emphasis is placed on the importance of understanding that probabilities reset each year, making future predictions difficult. Statistical triggers that contribute to these estimates include economic instability, natural disasters, and geopolitical tensions.
Triggers of Collapse
The presentation reviewed encompasses 49 potential triggers for societal collapse, each with individually low probabilities of occurrence. However, when aggregated, these triggers yield a significant overall risk. Examples of potential triggers include severe pandemics, financial crises, and breakdowns in law and order. The cumulative risk from multiple low-probability events necessitates preparedness and vigilance against unforeseen outcomes.
Statistics and Human Nature
A significant point made is that people often misunderstand and misinterpret statistical information, leading to complacency in the face of potential threats. Historical occurrences, such as the use of nuclear weapons and the effects of unforeseen disasters, serve to challenge the belief that low-probability events will not happen. Human behavior often dismisses alarming statistics until they materialize into crises, revealing a natural tendency to underestimate risk. This human psychological response can create vulnerabilities when society faces real threats.
Preparedness Strategies
Preparedness is emphasized as not only a survival tactic but also a proactive approach to mitigating the risks of potential collapse. Recommendations include fostering community ties, sharing resources, and developing personal emergency plans. The idea is to empower individuals and families to take their safety into their own hands, rather than relying solely on government guarantees. Building networks and acquiring survival skills are vital during periods of uncertainty and potential disaster.
Portrayal of Civil Unrest
The podcast also covers the likelihood of civil unrest as a potential aspect of societal collapse, especially post-election. Notably, it suggests that civil strife may likely emerge regionally within states, rather than a unified war between states. Many voters' divisions can exacerbate these tensions, fueling conflicting ideologies and social unrest. Individual states may resist federal mandates or actions, leading to localized conflict and division.
Role of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence is discussed as a factor that increases the potential for societal collapse, as it can be weaponized or misused. The rapid development of AI technology presents both opportunities and risks, including the capacity to create harmful biological agents. The accessibility of advanced AI tools makes it easier for individuals or rogue entities to generate threats without the need for large organizations. Continued advances in technology necessitate a proactive approach towards ensuring safety and stability.
Emergency Planning and Awareness
The importance of having a contingency plan in place, particularly related to energy independence, comes to the forefront in the discussion. The potential for solar power systems to be impacted by catastrophic events like EMPs is noted, suggesting that individuals must think through their preparedness strategies. Having alternate energy sources and ensuring that emergency power systems are adequately protected increase resilience. Additionally, part of planning requires knowledge of which renewable systems provide the best utility in times of crisis.
Survival Community Value
Joining survival communities, such as Fortitude Ranch, offers advantages for collective preparedness and resource sharing. These communities allow individuals to pool resources, knowledge, and skills while ensuring safety in numbers during crises. Participation in such groups fosters a sense of accountability and mutual support, which is essential in scenarios of societal breakdown. Furthermore, the presence of experienced individuals within these communities enhances collective preparedness.
Understanding Historical Precedents
Historical precedents underline the potential for rapid societal decline and the resulting chaos it entails. Notable events highlight that once societal systems start failing, the response can escalate quickly, catching many unprepared. Understanding past failures of governance and order serves as a warning for current society, enabling individuals to look beyond complacency. The results of societal collapse in various regions globally serve as a reminder that preparedness is vital for survival.
Resilience Building
The overarching theme stresses the need for resilience, not just in systems but in individuals and communities. Building resilience includes acquiring and practicing survival skills, establishing local networks, and being proactive in fostering community relationships. As people increasingly prepare for uncertainties in life, the understanding gained through shared knowledge enhances collective survival abilities. Ultimately, enhancing resilience can transition a community from mere survival to a rebuilding platform after a collapse.
We talk about collapse a lot, we do so from many angles. But what if I told you the same government that tells you it won’t happen has calculated the odds of it happening based on 49 possible triggers at 16% on any given year. Today our guest, Col. Drew Miller, USAF (Ret.), joins us to discuss this very serious reality. Retired Air Force Colonel and former Intelligence Officer, Drew, holds a PhD in Operations Research from Harvard University and served in the Senior Executive Service at the Pentagon. He is the Founder and CEO of Fortitude Ranch, the largest …Continue reading →
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
