The Israeli-Hamas War: Intelligence, Strategy, and the Day After

As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, the role of intelligence has figured prominently. How did Israel fail to grasp Hamas’s intentions and capabilities and to anticipate the October 7 attack? Was this a failure of imagination or were there structural and bureaucratic impediments that prevented Israel’s intelligence community from identifying the dots and connecting them? Are domestic politics overriding sound intelligence analysis to shape the Israeli government’s campaign against Hamas, its approach toward Gazan civilians, its efforts to free hostages, and its thinking on post-conflict Gaza and the West Bank?

Efraim Halevy, former director of the Mossad, and Ami Ayalon, former director of Shin Bet, engage in conversation with Aaron David Miller on these and other subjects.