In the Money with Amber Kanwar

Commodities Are on Fire — But What Comes After a Record Year?

Dec 11, 2025
Hussein Allidina, Head of Commodities at TD Asset Management, shares his insights on the commodity market following a record year. He predicts we're at the start of a multi-year upcycle driven by global demand and underinvestment. Hussein explains why a 5-10% commodity allocation can shield against inflation, and discusses oil's potential dip before a strong rally. He also highlights natural gas's rising role in AI and emphasizes copper's tight supply dynamics. Plus, find out why gold is more about value than inflation, with a forecast suggesting prices could soar.
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INSIGHT

Commodities Hedge Portfolio Risk

  • Commodities have low or negative correlation to traditional assets and can zig when equities and bonds zag.
  • Hussein Allidina says they provide real inflation protection that improves portfolio efficiency.
ADVICE

Aim For 5–10% Commodity Allocation

  • Target a 5–10% commodity allocation for most investors to improve risk-return and reduce drawdowns.
  • Hussein Allidina warns portfolios under 5% may underperform and higher allocations suit institutions with inflation-linked liabilities.
INSIGHT

Long Commodity Cycles Explained

  • Commodity cycles run ~25–30 years with two-thirds exploitation and one-third price-led investment phases.
  • Hussein Allidina believes we are entering an early multi-year investment/upcycle due to underinvestment.
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