Commodities Are on Fire — But What Comes After a Record Year?
In the Money with Amber Kanwar
Commodity cycles: long investment and exploitation phases
Hussein outlines 25–30 year commodity cycles, long lags in supply response, and current early-cycle signs.
What if the next big bull market isn’t in tech or AI stocks — but in commodities?
On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Amber sits down with Hussein Allidina, Head of Commodities at TD Asset Management, for one of the most comprehensive conversations about commodities after an explosive year.
Hussein argues that we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year commodity upcycle, driven by chronic underinvestment, rising global demand, and a world that needs far more energy, metals and power infrastructure than we’re currently capable of producing. He explains why commodities zig when everything else zags, how they deliver real inflation protection, and why a 5–10% allocation may be the most overlooked tool in modern portfolio construction.
From why oil may first trade down into the $40 range before setting up for a powerful rebound, to why natural gas could become the quiet backbone of AI, Hussein delivers a masterclass in understanding cycles, supply constraints, and how capital is flowing into the wrong parts of the system. And yes — we get into gold. Why it’s not an inflation hedge, why central banks can’t stop buying it, and why he believes “we see $5,000/oz before we see $2,000/oz.” Amber and Hussein also explore the long cycles in the U.S. dollar, the rise in military and infrastructure spending, and how electrification and data centres will reshape global commodity demand over the next decade.
In Pro Picks, Hussein lays out three clear calls: a tactical short in soybeans as speculative flows unwind, a strategic long oil position over the next 6–12 months as inventories tighten and spare capacity shrinks, and a long-term bullish view on copper over the next five to seven years driven by some of the strongest structural demand forces in the market. It’s a roadmap for anyone trying to navigate commodities with a professional lens.
If you’ve ever wondered how to think about commodities like a pro — or whether now is the moment to finally add them to your portfolio — this episode is for you.
Timestamps
00:00 Questrade’s new tools for investors. Use promo code INTHEMONEY
01:15 Show intro
03:25 The role of commodities in a portfolio
07:15 What’s a responsible allocation to commodities?
10:00 Understanding how commodity cycles work
14:30 What’s going on with oil?
19:10 Expectations for natural gas
23:00 What if the return from AI doesn’t materialize?
25:00 The path for Copper
27:20 The generalist attitude toward commodities right now
29:30 Gold’s record year- what happens next?
36:45 Silver’s big surge
39:20 TD Alternative Commodities Pool Fund
40:40 The relationship between rates & commodities
43:10 Understanding the supply & demand picture, bigger themes & defence spending
46:45 Hussein’s Pro Picks (short soy beans, long oil, longer term copper)
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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