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UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Top of the Morning: July Jobs Report, FOMC, & the week ahead
Aug 2, 2024
Brian Rose, a Senior Economist at UBS Chief Investment Office, delves into the surprising trends in the July jobs report, highlighting rising unemployment and sluggish job growth. He discusses the implications of this data for consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The conversation also covers how softening labor market indicators could lead to potential rate cuts, with key economic signals that investors should monitor in the fluctuating landscape ahead.
09:21
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Quick takeaways
- The disappointing July jobs report highlights rising unemployment and tepid wage growth, indicating potential challenges for consumer spending and economic recovery.
- The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting signals a shift towards potential rate cuts, reflecting concerns over cooling labor market conditions and inflation risks.
Deep dives
Weak July Employment Report
The July employment report revealed disappointing figures, with non-farm payrolls only increasing by 114,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. This shift indicates a continuation of a trend towards rising unemployment, which has been evident for over a year. Additionally, wage growth remained tepid, with average hourly earnings rising by just two cents, while the average weekly hours also declined. These developments suggest a concerning outlook for household income, potentially hindering consumer spending and overall economic recovery.
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