Iran's role in the Gaza war: is escalation inevitable?
Nov 4, 2023
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Iran's role in the Gaza war and the potential for escalation are the most interesting topics discussed in this episode. The podcast explores Iran's involvement in the conflict, including their support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. It also examines Israel's proximity to war with Iran and the implications of their ongoing invasion of Gaza. Additionally, the podcast analyzes the future of the US-Iran relationship, the impact of the conflict on oil flow and the interests of the United States and China.
Iran benefits from conflicts in Arab populations and seeks to replace Israel with Palestine.
Iran macro manages proxy groups and is willing to escalate tensions through indirect conflicts.
Deep dives
Iran benefits from the misery of Arab populations
Iran benefits from the suffering and conflicts of Arab populations such as Palestinians, Lebanese, Yemenis, and Iraqis. They do not want to see these populations become prosperous and thrive in failing states. The more these populations experience conflict, the more Iran tends to benefit.
Iran's strategy to replace Israel with Palestine
Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has had a consistent grand strategy to defeat the U.S.-led world order, evict the United States from the Middle East, and replace Israel with Palestine. They have spent billions of dollars supporting militant groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah to achieve their goals.
Iran's influence on proxy groups and their willingness to engage
Iran tends to macro manage rather than micromanage its proxy groups. While they do not directly order these groups to act, Iran has significant influence over them through financing and military support. Iran has thrived in indirect conflicts and power vacuums in failing states. They may be willing to escalate tensions with Israel and the United States through proxy actions, believing there is no appetite for direct conflicts in the American public.
With all eyes on Israel’s escalating war with Hamas, what’s Iran’s next move? Iran gets around. In Southern Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters have a missile arsenal that dwarfs Hamas’ rocket supply and could overwhelm Israel’s famed “Iron Dome” air defense. The Pentagon recently redirected the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier and its strike group of destroyers to the Middle East instead of the eastern Mediterranean, ready to intercept missile and drone strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen aimed at Israel. Days later, American F-16 jets carried out airstrikes in Eastern Syria on facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard and its proxies, in retaliation for a barrage of recent rocket and drone attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria. But there’s a big difference between skirmishes with Iran proxy forces and an all-out US-Israel-Iran war. So how close is Israel to all-out war with Iran...and how will Israel’s ongoing invasion of Gaza up the ante? What are the implications for Israel's Western allies? On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer asks Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.