Denise Dresser, a political analyst in Mexico, warns about the threats to democracy in Mexico as Claudia Sheinbaum's win could lead to either democracy or autocracy. They discuss corruption, mishandling of the pandemic, challenges in governance, international relations, and the potential governance style of the new president.
Mexico's democracy faces threats from polarization and erosion of institutions under current governance.
Transition of power in Mexico highlighted by discontent over inequality, corruption, and desire for change.
Deep dives
Claudia Shambam's Landslide Victory
Claudia Shambam won Mexico's presidential election by a staggering margin, garnering more than 30% above the opposition. Her party, Morena, secured a supermajority in Congress, marking a significant political triumph. The victory was attributed to several factors, including past government actions, a popular president, and a populist narrative of people versus elites. The substantial win signaled a shift in power and potential consequences beyond surface-level attributions like gender or religion.
Challenges in Mexico's Democratic Transition
The transition of power in Mexico in 2000 failed to address core issues like inequality and concentration of wealth, laying the groundwork for Lopez Obrador's election. Historical failures to tackle these issues led to a discontented electorate. Scandals, corruption, and economic struggles during previous administrations fueled a desire for change. Lopez Obrador capitalized on these sentiments through a narrative emphasizing popular welfare programs and anti-establishment rhetoric.
Security and Foreign Relations Under Lopez Obrador
Lopez Obrador's governance saw a complex approach to security, where promises to reduce militarization were overshadowed by increased military involvement in various sectors. The administration faced criticism for handling the security situation, with ongoing issues of homicides and cartel influence. Additionally, his foreign relations strategy involved cultivating relationships with countries like China and Russia to counterbalance American influence, setting a unique diplomatic tone for Mexico.
Earlier this month, Claudia Sheinbaum won a sweeping victory in Mexico’s presidential election. Although a lot of the coverage framed the results as a win for women and progressive politics, the story is far more complicated.
Mexico’s democracy is in trouble, warns Denise Dresser, a political analyst in Mexico. For years, Dresser has watched Sheinbaum’s party—and its previous leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador—govern through polarization and the erosion of democratic institutions, even as the country struggles with violence, corruption, and persistent inequality. Dresser is a professor of political science at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico.
There is a chance Sheinbaum charts a different course. But if not, Dresser worries that Mexico could face an autocratic future.