The podcast delves into India's growing population and economy, as well as the potential impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term. It also explores the consolidation of power, concerns about civil rights, and the delicate balancing act between China and the US in India's foreign policy.
Narendra Modi's political dominance in India is fueled by ideological consolidation and effective organization.
India's authoritarian drift under Modi's leadership raises concerns about curtailed civil liberties and targeted opposition measures.
Deep dives
Modi's Political Dominance and Key Factors
Narendra Modi's expected victory for a third term stems from his ability to establish ideological dominance, consolidate Hindu nationalism, and lead a well-organized political party. He has convinced a significant portion of the Indian population that he best represents the country's interests, while focusing on expanding India's state capacity through modernization efforts and welfare initiatives. Modi's political success also lies in the organizational strength of his political party, enabling effective voter mobilization.
Rise of Authoritarianism in Indian Politics
The consolidation of power under Modi's leadership has led to growing authoritarian tendencies within the Indian state. Restrictions on civil liberties like freedom of expression and journalism, increased state control over information and the targeting of opposition figures through anti-corruption cases have raised concerns. The authoritarian shift manifests in curtailed civil liberties, control over information, and judicial measures that limit dissent and opposition.
India's Global Power and Foreign Policy Shifts
India's global standing and foreign policy reflect a mix of continuity and change. While Modi's government aligns with India's historical focus on global economic development and great power status, shifts in policy style and substance are evident. There is a notable increase in self-confidence, leveraging personality-driven diplomacy, and advocating for a unique civilization state approach. Additionally, India strategically exploits global power rifts to advance its interests, showing a nuanced stance in global relations.
US-India Relationship Dynamics and Future Prospects
The US-India relationship navigates complex dynamics, balancing strategic ties and democratic values. While US administrations have tempered public criticism on India's domestic issues, human rights concerns persist. Both countries prioritize mutual interests while acknowledging differences. Future bilateral scenarios may encompass economic challenges, cybersecurity cooperation, and differing stances on global issues like China and Russia. The US policy approach, especially concerning tariffs and immigration, could influence the relationship's evolution under varying administrations.
India has enormous momentum. Its population has surpassed China’s, making it the most populous country in the world. Its economy is expected to become the world’s third largest in the next few years. And, as much as any country, it seems positioned to take today’s geopolitical tensions and turn them to its advantage.
The country’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, is expected to win a third term in office this spring, cementing his own political dominance. But that has come with a dark side—an assault on civil rights and democracy, which some warn will ultimately hinder India.
To address Modi’s third term and India’s future more broadly, Foreign Affairs editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelanmoderated a panel including Alyssa Ayres, Ashley J. Tellis, and Pratap Bhanu Mehta. Ayres is Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Tellis is the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And Mehta is Laurence S. Rockefeller Visiting Professor for Distinguished Teaching at Princeton University.