As 2025 gets into gear, all eyes are on the year ahead, with a degree of trepidation (or excitement, depending on whom you ask) for the early impacts of the incoming Trump administration on U.S.-China relations, and global politics at large. From the Ukraine war to possibility of conflict across the Taiwan Strait, not to mention economic and diplomatic conflict across the Pacific, it’s a fresh era of uncertainty.

To unpack these risks, our guest this month is the academic and author Oriana Skylar Mastro, whose research focuses on Chinese military policy and Asia-Pacific security. She is Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Her most recent book, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power (Oxford University Press, 2024), tells the story of China’s rise and it’s military modernization, as well as the challenge that presents to the U.S. She talked about China’s switch from emulation to entrepreneurship; her thoughts on relations with China under Trump; and why she thinks war over Taiwan is unlikely in the next four years.

The China Books Podcast is a companion of China Books Review, a project of Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and The Wire, a digital business platform that also publishes The Wire China. For any queries or comments, please write to editor[at]chinabooksreview.com.