Dr. Steven Skancke, Brendan Coughlin, and Ana Arsov discuss the Fed's views on inflation and interest rates, delving into private credit, the 2024 economic outlook, and transformative power of AI in banking. They explore the rise of private credit as an asset class and potential challenges. They also touch upon the effects of zero interest rates and thriving in a shifting business landscape.
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Quick takeaways
Private credit has become a favored alternative to traditional bank financing, filling the lending gap and offering certainty of execution and attractive returns.
Lower interest rates enhance borrowers' ability to meet their debt obligations, supporting overall credit performance in private credit.
Deep dives
Private credit becoming a mainstream asset class
Private credit has gained significant attention and popularity over the past two years, transitioning from a niche asset class to a more mainstream investment option. It has become a favored alternative to traditional bank financing, especially as banks have pulled back due to higher interest rates and consumers have reduced their spending. With a substantial amount of capital in the form of dry powder that needs to be deployed, private credit has filled the lending gap, offering certainty of execution and attractive returns.
Despite a challenging macro environment, private credit has generally experienced positive credit performance over the past few years. Many portfolio companies were able to refinance their debt at low rates during the pandemic, buying them time and improving their interest coverage. While the upcoming refinancing wave in 2024-2026 could pose challenges for companies that locked in low rates and now face higher repayment obligations, overall credit performance is expected to be supported by lower rates, which enhance borrowers' ability to meet their debt obligations.
Potential impact of a soft landing on private credit
If the economy achieves a soft landing, private credit may experience some credit losses, particularly in highly leveraged companies. However, lower rates can improve credit performance and sustain overall portfolio quality. As the broadly syndicated loan market begins to open up, there may be more competition between private credit and the syndicated loan market, especially in larger transactions. Private credit will likely maintain its strength in the middle market space, where traditional banks are less active.
Increasing competition and potential risks
As private credit continues to grow, competition among lenders may intensify, potentially leading to some dilution of loan covenants. The premium of 200 basis points that private credit enjoyed over the past two years may decrease as the broadly syndicated loan market becomes more accessible and large players enter to compete. Despite potential risks, lower rates will generally benefit credit performance, while refinancing challenges may arise in the future due to the upcoming wave of maturities in the next few years.
Dr. Steven Skancke, Chief Economic Advisor at Keel Point, shares his thoughts on the FOMC meeting and looking for clarity on the Fed’s views on inflation and interest rates. Brendan Coughlin, Vice Chairman and Head of Consumer Banking at Citizens Financial Group, discusses delving into private credit and the 2024 economic outlook. And we Drive to the Close with Ana Arsov, Global Head of Private Credit & Financial Institutions at Moody’s Investors Service. Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Emily Graffeo. Producer: Paul Brennan.