Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 223: Shahin Vallée on French Election Fallout, Second Round Scenarios, and Germany’s Debt Brake

Jul 5, 2024

Shahin Vallée, a geopolitical expert, discusses the aftermath of the French election, potential second round scenarios, challenges in forming a government, and the impact of fiscal policy challenges. He also delves into the dynamics of the French and German political systems, and provides insights on post-election policy timing and book recommendations.

25:58

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Episode guests

Shahin Vallée

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Shahin Vallée discusses nuances of French legislative elections, challenges faced by Macron's government, and potential outcomes.

Vallée delves into implications of German debt brake policy on fiscal prudence, need for reform amid global uncertainties.

Deep dives

Shahen Valle's Diverse Career Background

Shahen Valle, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and board member at Observatory Group, shares his academic journey from studying economics and public affairs in France and the US to working as a macro economist in an investment bank. Valle also highlights his experience as an economic advisor to European leaders, including the president of the European Council and Emmanuel Macron.

Intro

2min

Guest's Background, Education, and Career Journey

2min

French Legislative Election Analysis

10min

French and German Political Systems Discussion

10min

Discussion on Post-Election Policy Timing and Book Recommendations

3min

My colleague Henry Occelston hosted this podcast on my behalf. Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm. He was previously an economic advisor to the President of the European Council, Herman von Rompuy, and also an economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron while Macron was Economy Minister of France. This podcast covers why Macron called a snap election, how to interpret the first round of the election, why a far-right majority is still possible, and much more.

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