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BBC Inside Science

Predicting everything

Sep 26, 2024
Join science writer Tom Chivers as he discusses his book 'Everything is Predictable,' revealing how statistics shape our daily lives. Professor Tara Spires-Jones sheds light on the complexities of developing Alzheimer’s drugs and the recent approval of lecanemab, despite regulatory hurdles. Meanwhile, Professor Sean Tweedy explains the innovative classification system ensuring a level playing field at the Paralympics, showcasing how technology and AI enhance fairness in sports. A blend of science, ethics, and groundbreaking research awaits!
34:50

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Bayes' Theorem exemplifies the importance of updating beliefs with new evidence, especially in scenarios like medical testing.
  • The approval of lecanumab highlights the complexities of developing Alzheimer’s treatments and the ethical dilemmas faced in healthcare decisions.

Deep dives

Understanding Bayes' Theorem

Bayes' Theorem serves as a powerful mathematical tool for making predictions based on prior information and new data. Originating from an equation developed by Reverend Thomas Bayes in the 18th century, the theorem allows for a better understanding of probabilities in everyday situations. An example described involves assessing the likelihood of having a particular medical condition after receiving a positive test result, emphasizing that people often overlook the importance of initial probabilities. This intuitive approach to information processing reflects how humans naturally update their beliefs and predictions in light of new evidence.

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