BBC Inside Science

Predicting everything

10 snips
Sep 26, 2024
Join science writer Tom Chivers as he discusses his book 'Everything is Predictable,' revealing how statistics shape our daily lives. Professor Tara Spires-Jones sheds light on the complexities of developing Alzheimer’s drugs and the recent approval of lecanemab, despite regulatory hurdles. Meanwhile, Professor Sean Tweedy explains the innovative classification system ensuring a level playing field at the Paralympics, showcasing how technology and AI enhance fairness in sports. A blend of science, ethics, and groundbreaking research awaits!
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ANECDOTE

Book Prize Spite

  • Tom Chivers's book, Everything is Predictable, was shortlisted for a Royal Society science book prize.
  • He jokingly attributes his motivation partly to professional spite, aiming to surpass his co-host's prior nomination.
INSIGHT

Bayes' Theorem

  • Bayes' theorem is the mathematics of prediction, explaining how to update beliefs with new information.
  • It underlies how we understand the world and make decisions.
ANECDOTE

Pregnancy Test Example

  • The pregnancy test example illustrates how prior knowledge influences probability.
  • A positive test doesn't confirm pregnancy in a man due to low prior probability.
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