Macro Mondays Most-Hated Rally Ever?
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Sep 16, 2025 Market analysts delve into the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, questioning why the current U.S. equity rally is deemed the 'most hated' on Wall Street. They explore AI-driven capital expenditure's potential to reshape the business landscape and discuss the complex dynamics of U.S.-China trade relations. The conversation shifts to dollar positioning and its implications for crypto and risk assets, all while navigating uncertainties in the economic climate.
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Fed Meeting Has Asymmetrical Outcomes
- The Fed meeting presents a wide outcome space despite markets pricing a 25bp cut as likely.
- Officials have incentive to cut because the labor market looks weak on the surface and they prefer not to risk starting a false-cut cycle.
The Most-Hated Rally Explained
- The current US equity rebound is widely disliked by professionals despite strong returns.
- Andreas calls it the "most-hated rally" because sentiment lags the actual earnings and business-cycle pickup.
AI CapEx Is A Concentrated Hockey-Stick
- AI spending is a concentrated CapEx cycle (data centers first) with little broad corporate investment outside tech.
- The hockey-stick of AI CapEx could still arrive later, making the overall cycle asymmetrically skewed to the upside.