UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy discussion in a data vacuum'
8 snips
Oct 9, 2025 This week highlights French political maneuvering as calls for a budget compromise gain momentum. The implications for upcoming elections are intriguing. Insights on Federal Reserve minutes reveal tensions within the bank regarding easing policies amid inflation concerns. Meanwhile, German trade data raises alarms about potential economic slowdown. Lastly, escalating U.S.-EU tech regulation tensions could lead to renewed tariff threats, adding a layer of uncertainty to market dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
French Budget Compromise Lowers Shock Risk
- French politicians appear willing to negotiate the budget to avoid new elections and keep governance stable.
- Paul Donovan says this means smaller fiscal savings than first proposed, reducing immediate disruption for markets.
French Assets Keep A Risk Premium
- French assets will keep a risk premium even if fiscal conflict eases.
- Paul Donovan expects the bond market to remain orderly despite elevated risk pricing.
Fed Minutes Reveal Divided Views On Easing
- Fed minutes show internal debate between faster easing, slow cautious easing, and delaying easing this month.
- A majority highlighted upside inflation risks and flagged labour market concerns and balance-sheet issues.