NAB Morning Call Central Banks Last Dash
Dec 14, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Sally Auld, NAB's markets economist, shares her expertise on pivotal global economic shifts. She delves into the implications of recent Fed dissents and the timing snafu with U.S. payroll data. Sally highlights the UK's troubling GDP figures just ahead of the Bank of England's meeting and contrasts this with other European central banks that are expected to maintain steady rates. Additionally, she reviews promising data from New Zealand and deciphers European inflation trends, all while previewing crucial upcoming global data.
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Central Banks Dominate A Packed Week
- The week is dominated by central bank decisions and late-arriving US payrolls that complicate market positioning.
- Sally Auld highlights that timing mismatches leave investors scrambling for fresh data before policy moves.
Fed Dissent Reflects Inflation Worries
- Fed dissenters emphasized inflation remains too high despite a cooling labour market.
- Sally Auld notes some Fed voters prefer to wait for more data before easing further.
UK Weakness Points To BoE Cut
- UK GDP fell in October, increasing the chance of negative Q4 growth and easing from the Bank of England.
- Markets are pricing a near‑certain 25bp cut from the Bank of England this week.