ChinaTalk Kamil on Nukes and Civil War in Russia
Oct 13, 2022
Kamil Galeev, a former Beijing grad student and expert on Russian politics, delves into the intricate dynamics of the war in Ukraine. He discusses the unsettling prospects of nuclear escalation and evaluates Putin's future amidst elite politics. The conversation extends to social implications of compulsory military mobilization and fears it instills in citizens. Galeev also critiques traditional U.S. strategies towards Russia, proposing a focus on decolonization and addressing the plight of vulnerable minorities amidst ongoing conflict.
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Nuclear Strategy
- Putin might use nuclear strikes to shift the narrative from losing to Ukraine to losing to the U.S.
- This could be a rational domestic political strategy for him.
Russia's Nuclear Dependence
- Russia's nuclear capability is overestimated, relying heavily on Western technology.
- The West's continued supply of hardware and software is crucial for maintaining Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Decolonization Strategy
- The U.S. should focus on decolonizing Russia rather than regime change or de-escalation.
- Engage with regional actors and interest groups beyond Moscow's liberal opposition.