Oxy Capital's Pedro Sousa thesis on high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK $GYM.L
Feb 22, 2024
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Pedro Sousa discusses his thesis on The Gym Group plc, competitive analysis, raising prices and margin expansion, discounting membership, new CEO, three-tier pricing, normalized earnings, EBITDA multiples, bear case, and final thoughts on the potential growth of the gym facilities in the UK
Pedro Sousa highlights Gym Group's strategy to raise prices and expand margins despite industry challenges.
Gym Group plans to transition to a three-tier pricing membership system for optimized revenue potential.
With a proactive CEO transition in 2023, Gym Group aims to leverage cash flow for club expansion and sustainable growth.
Deep dives
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Analyzing Gym Group's Market Position and Value
Gym Group, a low-cost gym chain in the UK, faces competition in the fitness sector, with Pedro Sosa from Oxy Capital highlighting industry dynamics and market perceptions. Despite challenges like post-COVID disruptions and membership discounts, Gym Group strategizes to increase pricing tiers, optimize gym utilization with off-peak offerings, and leverage ROIC potential, positioning itself for long-term growth.
CEO Change, Pricing Strategies, and Membership Models
The podcast episode discusses Gym Group's CEO transition in 2023, signaling a proactive shift towards subscription-centric management over industry-specific experience. With a refined three-tier pricing strategy catering to varied gym usage patterns, Gym Group navigates post-COVID challenges and boosts revenue potential by offering off-peak memberships to optimize gym traffic and enhance member experience.
Positive outlook on Jim Group's growth potential and resiliency to recessions
Jim Group, a gym operator, is poised for growth with plans to increase the number of clubs from 230 to 250 by 2025. The company aims for a normalized earnings level of 45 million a beta in 2024, leveraging its internal cash flow for expansion. The low-cost gym model is seen as resilient to recessions due to historical performance during economic downturns, with potential to double its gym base and maintain sustainable growth.
Investment thesis analysis and upside potential of Jim Group
Analyzing Jim Group's investment thesis reveals a favorable risk-reward scenario, with upside potential in both the short and long term. The company is considered attractively priced with a strong management team capable of exploiting white space opportunities for expansion. Market analysts view the company as undervalued, especially when compared to industry peers, suggesting a promising outlook for future growth and returns.
Pedro Sousa, Principal at Oxy Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Gym Group plc (LSE: GYM) - founded in 2007, the Gym Group is the original provider of high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK.
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:05] Overview of Gym Group $GYM.L and why it's interesting to Pedro
[9:09] Competitive analysis: Basic-Fit and PureGym
[18:00] Raising prices and margin expansion
[25:40] Replacement cost and margin of safety
[31:29] Discounting of membership in October 2022
[33:42] New CEO in Summer 2023
[37:29] Three-tier pricing membership
[41:14] Normalized earnings levels looks like and free cash flow
[53:18] EBITDA multiples
[56:35] Bear case on $GYM.L
[1:07:28] Final thoughts
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