MacroVoices #449 Harley Bassman: The Magic of Mortgages
Oct 10, 2024
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Harley Bassman, a portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management and the renowned Convexity Maven, shares insights into mortgage-backed securities and their pivotal role in the bond market. He breaks down complex concepts and common misconceptions, also discussing the impact of demographics on economic trends. The conversation further explores trading strategies in agency bonds amidst rising interest rates and offers intriguing perspectives on current market dynamics, including gold and uranium trends.
Mortgage-backed securities are crucial for investors as they represent the second-largest bond market asset class, impacting financial stability.
The valuation of mortgage-backed securities is significantly influenced by interest rate changes and the refinancing behaviors of homeowners amidst fluctuating cash flows.
An effective investment strategy in mortgage-backed securities involves focusing on newly issued bonds to optimize yields and manage interest rate risks.
Deep dives
The Landscape of Mortgage-Backed Securities
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) represent the second-largest asset class in the bond market, trailing only U.S. treasuries. These securities are structured bonds backed by home loans that are guaranteed by entities like Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. While many retail investors may not trade MBS directly, the majority are exposed to these investments through ETFs and mutual funds. This indirect investment is crucial, as understanding the process behind MBS can help investors better navigate the complexities of the mortgage market and its implications on financial stability.
Understanding the Call Option Dynamics
The valuation of mortgage-backed securities hinges on the concept of call options, which can significantly impact an investor's returns. When interest rates change, the likelihood of homeowners refinancing their mortgages affects the cash flows associated with MBS, making the underlying call option more valuable. As a result, the risk-adjusted returns of MBS can be attractive in the current market, especially as certain mortgage bonds are perceived to be priced too low relative to their risk. Investors are encouraged to consider this option structure when assessing MBS as part of their investment strategy.
Current Interest Rate Environment and MBS Strategy
The current inverted yield curve influences how investors should perceive mortgage-backed securities in terms of risk and reward. With interest rates fluctuating and expected to stabilize, the pricing of newly issued mortgages becomes a focal point for attracting investments. Investors should prioritize acquiring higher coupon mortgage bonds issued recently rather than legacy bonds with lower yields, as the latter may offer poor risk-adjusted returns. By focusing on newly issued securities, investors can optimize their exposure to the MBS market amid a changing interest rate backdrop.
Forecasting Inflation and the Bond Market
The outlook for inflation remains pivotal in shaping investment strategies for the bond market. Current demographic trends show that the retiring baby boomer population is creating a supply-demand imbalance in the labor market, which may keep inflation elevated over the long term. As economic activity evolves, the interplay of supply constraints from retiring workers and the growing millennial demographic could contribute to sustained inflationary pressures. Thus, predictions of future interest rates are closely tied to inflation expectations, affecting overall bond valuations.
Constructing a Strategic Mortgage-Backed Securities Portfolio
For investors looking to optimize their exposure to mortgage-backed securities, an active management strategy focused on current coupon mortgages is critical. The goal is to strike a balance between shorter-duration securities while actively rolling investments to capture the best available yields. This strategic approach allows investors to navigate the complexity of reinvestment risks and effectively manage fluctuations in interest rates. By maintaining a portfolio that primarily consists of newly issued mortgage bonds, investors can enhance their overall risk-adjusted returns within the MBS framework.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Harley Bassman. They will discuss mortgage backed securities and the best way to trade them. https://bit.ly/4ezISv9