Slow Supply, Fast Demand: Uranium’s New Reality

Interview with
John Cash, CEO of Ur-Energy Inc.
Andre Liebenberg, Executive Director & CEO of Yellow Cake PLC

Recording date: 14th May 2025

The global uranium market is undergoing a fundamental transformation as a confluence of energy transition goals, geopolitical tensions, and new technology drives demand higher. Nuclear power, long sidelined in policy debates, is regaining momentum due to its ability to deliver carbon-free baseload power in a world increasingly powered by data centers, AI infrastructure, and electrification.

Key markets like China and the U.S. are leading the resurgence. China alone is building 26 reactors, with more approved, while the U.S. is extending the life and output of existing plants. Beyond these, countries in the UAE, Canada, and Europe are revisiting nuclear as part of their decarbonization strategy. This results in a dual demand dynamic—growth from new builds and rising fuel requirements from uprates and life extensions.

A new frontier of demand is also emerging. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), designed for remote or off-grid applications, are being positioned to serve industrial projects and data centers needing secure, emissions-free energy. This aligns with a broader shift from nuclear being seen purely as a clean energy solution to one that also supports energy sovereignty and national resilience.

On the supply side, the uranium sector is constrained. Permitting delays, technical bottlenecks, labor shortages, and long project lead times mean even elevated prices haven't sparked a broad production rebound. Industry leaders like UR Energy CEO John Cash and Yellow Cake CEO Andre Liebenberg point to the lack of conversion and enrichment capacity in Western markets as an additional hurdle. This underscores the need for multi-year investment in the full fuel cycle.

Geopolitics are also tightening Western supply chains. Kazakhstan, the world's top uranium producer, is increasingly shipping material eastward, not out of hostility but practicality. Still, the result is a growing bifurcation in global uranium flows that further limits Western procurement options.

As a result, institutional investors are being encouraged to view uranium as a structurally revaluing asset class rather than a cyclical commodity. Exposure can be taken through physical holders like Yellow Cake, which tracks uranium prices directly, or producers like UR Energy, which is already generating long-term contract revenue.

Risks remain—chiefly around timing, geopolitical disruption, and capital market dynamics. Yet, with demand outpacing supply and investment requirements high, the uranium market appears poised for sustained long-term opportunity.

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