Best of: The 'Humble' Investor Says Sell Private Equity, Sell US Tech, Buy Polish Small Caps

In 'One Up On Wall Street,' Peter Lynch explains how average investors can outperform professionals by leveraging their everyday experiences and knowledge. Lynch advocates for investing in companies and products that are familiar and understandable, rather than following trendy or complex investments. He provides easy-to-follow advice on analyzing financial statements, identifying different types of companies (such as cyclical, turnaround, and fast-growing companies), and maintaining a long-term investment strategy. The book emphasizes the importance of simplicity, patience, and fundamental analysis in achieving successful investments.

In 'Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side,' Howard Marks provides a comprehensive overview of market cycles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the patterns of ups and downs influenced by economics, markets, companies, and human psychology. Marks draws on his decades of experience to explain how investors can position their portfolios to take advantage of market cycles by studying past cycles, understanding their origins, and remaining alert for the next cycle. The book highlights that market cycles are driven by cause-and-effect relationships and that investors should prepare rather than predict market outcomes. It also delves into the psychological markers and emotional factors that influence investor behavior during different phases of the cycle.

In 'Margin of Safety', Seth Klarman discusses his views on value investing, drawing from the concepts of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. The book critiques speculative investing and institutional investing practices, advocating for a disciplined and risk-averse approach. Klarman emphasizes the importance of understanding the intrinsic value of investments, avoiding false precision in valuations, and maintaining a margin of safety to mitigate potential losses. The book is divided into sections that cover the philosophy of value investing, the critique of institutional investing, and practical strategies for determining value and managing portfolios.

This three-volume work by William H. Prescott details the conquest of Mexico by the Spanish, particularly the actions of Hernán Cortés and the fall of the Aztec empire. Prescott used primary sources to describe the Aztec civilization and the conquest, avoiding secondary sources due to their bias. The book is structured as a drama in five acts, or books, and presents a rigorous historical narrative supported by contemporary evidence. Prescott's work highlights the complexities of the conquest, the cultural and political context of both the Spanish and the Aztecs, and the broader implications of this historical event.

In this book, Robert J. Shiller examines the forces that drive market volatility, including cultural, psychological, and structural factors. He discusses how events such as technological advancements and demographic changes can precipitate market bubbles, and how these bubbles are reinforced by media coverage and 'new era' economic thinking. The book also explores psychological anchors and herd behavior, as well as attempts to rationalize market exuberance through theories like efficient markets and random walks. Shiller provides prescriptions for policy changes and investor strategies to mitigate the effects of speculative volatility.

Published in February 1936, 'The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money' by John Maynard Keynes revolutionized economic thought by challenging the classical economic theories of his time. Keynes argued that total spending in an economy can fail to generate full employment if total savings exceed total investment. He introduced key concepts such as the 'Principle of Effective Demand,' liquidity preference, and the marginal efficiency of capital. The book emphasizes the importance of aggregate demand, the role of government in stabilizing the economy, and the interaction between monetary and real economic factors. Keynes's theories have had a profound impact on economic policy and continue to influence macroeconomic thought and policy to this day.

In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years. He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable. Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information. The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.