Historical Case Studies of Technology Governance and International Agreements
May 13, 2023
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This podcast discusses historical case studies that can inform AI governance. It explores the governance of nuclear technology, the differences between AI and nuclear technology, proposals for international control of nuclear energy, reducing the risk of nuclear proliferation, the impact of general purpose technologies on military affairs, and the outcomes of the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols.
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Quick takeaways
The development and governance of nuclear technology provide valuable insights for AI governance, highlighting the importance of international mechanisms, policymaking challenges, and the involvement of the private sector.
The success of bans on nuclear weapons proliferation depends on controlling access to fissile materials, the effectiveness of sanctions and safeguards, and the importance of reciprocal restraint, transparency, and coordination to reduce the risk of proliferation.
Deep dives
Lessons from Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Agreements
The podcast discusses historical case studies in arms control and non-proliferation agreements, focusing on the development and attempted governance of nuclear technology. It explores the uncertain early years of nuclear technology, the need for international governance mechanisms to reduce risks, and the challenges of policymaking, secrecy, and security. The podcast highlights the differences between nuclear technology and AI, such as private sector involvement, level of internationalization, economic impact, and discernibility of risks. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of radical proposals, widespread support, and contextual factors in shaping arms control agreements.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime and the Success of Bans
This segment examines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime (NPT) and the factors influencing the success of bans on nuclear weapons proliferation. It highlights the importance of controlling and limiting access to fissile materials, the challenges faced by states with nuclear weapon ambitions, and the effectiveness of sanctions and safeguards. The podcast also discusses the role of security alliances, the impact of transparency and verification regimes, and the motivations behind successful bans. It emphasizes the significance of reciprocal restraint, transparency, and coordination in reducing the risk of proliferation.
Lessons from Bans on Autonomous Weapons
The podcast explores the success and failure of bans on autonomous weapons. It discusses the role of broad impact pathways, productivity spillovers, and delayed effects in shaping the consequences of general-purpose technologies (GPTs) like electricity. The discussion focuses on the broad applications of electricity in military systems, the transformation of industrial productivity, and the delayed diffusion of military electrification. The podcast highlights the importance of considering impacts beyond narrow effects and weapons systems in the case of artificial intelligence, such as communications, cyberspace operations, intelligence, and strategic decision making. It emphasizes the need for understanding the long-term effects and industrial capacity in shaping the impacts of AI in military affairs.
Comparing the Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol
In this segment, the podcast compares the Montreal Protocol's success in eliminating ozone-depleting chemicals with the limited progress of the Kyoto Protocol in stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions. It highlights the role of self-interested judgments and payoff structures in influencing the United States' support or opposition to the protocols. The podcast emphasizes that compliance with international agreements depends on perceived self-interest and the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. It underscores the complexity of international agreements and the importance of domestic self-interest in shaping effective environmental governance.
The following excerpts summarize historical case studies that are arguably informative for AI governance. The case studies span nuclear arms control, militaries’ adoption of electricity, and environmental agreements. (For ease of reading, we have edited the formatting of the following excerpts and added bolding.)