Tensions are rising in the Baltic Sea following suspicious damage to undersea cables, reportedly involving a Chinese vessel. Experts discuss NATO's role in protecting vital infrastructure against potential Russian aggression and hybrid threats. The strategic importance of the Baltic as a trade route is emphasized, alongside Estonia's security challenges. With increasing incidents of sabotage, the podcast delves into the vulnerabilities of critical assets and the complexities of responding to such 'grey zone' activities.
The severing of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea raises alarms about sabotage and the complexities of hybrid warfare involving Russia.
NATO's ability to respond effectively to grey zone tactics and protect critical underwater infrastructure in the Baltic faces significant challenges.
Deep dives
The Cable Incident and Suspicions
Recent damage to critical undersea cables in the Baltic Sea raises significant concerns about potential sabotage amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Two cables connecting Sweden to Lithuania and Finland to Germany were severed shortly after a Chinese vessel, the Yipeng-3, had sailed nearby, leading investigators to suspect deliberate action rather than an accident. Swedish officials found damage to one of the ship's anchors, but proving intent is difficult due to jurisdictional limitations in international waters. Experts suggest that involvement from Russia is plausible, given its history of aggression towards Western nations, and the ambiguity surrounding the incident exemplifies the challenges of attributing responsibility in such hybrid warfare scenarios.
Geopolitical Significance of the Baltic Sea
The Baltic Sea serves as a vital trade route for multiple countries and carries strategic importance, particularly for Russia, as significant portions of its maritime trade pass through this extensive area. With eight of the nine neighboring countries being NATO members, and tensions exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical landscape has become increasingly precarious. Estonia, in particular, feels vulnerable due to its proximity to Russia, making it a potential target for aggression as Russia uses the Baltic Sea for its military and economic maneuvers. The region's complex governance with territorial and economic zones adds to the difficulty of ensuring security and coordination among the Baltic states in response to these threats.
Vulnerabilities of Baltic Infrastructure and Hybrid Warfare
The infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, including gas pipelines and undersea cables, faces increasing vulnerabilities, especially since the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Notable incidents, such as the damage to Nord Stream gas pipelines and multiple cable cuts, highlight the challenges of identifying perpetrators in a climate of hybrid warfare, where acts of aggression can occur below the threshold of open conflict. The notion of grey zone tactics complicates responses, as they often blur the lines between criminal activity and state-sponsored aggression, making it difficult for NATO to invoke a collective response. Despite enhanced NATO presence and exercises designed to deter threats, the region's critical infrastructure remains at risk from covert attacks that challenge existing security frameworks.
Accusations of sabotage have been made after a Chinese merchant ship cut through two important undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. Eight of the nine states in the Baltic are members of Nato but Russia has access to the sea from St Petersburg and for its Kaliningrad exclave.
With previous incidents of damage to underwater pipelines and cables, there is concern that the security of critical underwater infrastructure is at risk from ‘grey zone’ activities - damaging but deniable incidents below the level of outright war.
David Baker hears how countries’ security is threatened by incidents like these. The pipelines that were cut ran between Finland and Germany and Sweden and Lithuania. He asks who can intervene to protect these assets in the Baltic. Can Nato respond?
Our experts this week are: Elizabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security, and the author of an upcoming book called The Undersea War; Helga Kalm, director of the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia; Marion Messmer, senior research fellow in the International Security Programme at Chatham House; Tormod Heier, professor at the National Defence University College in Oslo, Norway and a former officer in the Norwegian Intelligence Service.
Presenter: David Baker
Producer: Philip Reevell
Researcher: Katie Morgan
Editor: Tara McDermott
Sound engineer: Craig Boardman
Image Credit - Rex/Shutterstock via BBC Images
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