The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: "The First Day of the Rest of Our Lives" Edition
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Nov 10, 2024 The discussion kicks off with reflections on the transformative implications of Trump's 2016 election victory. The panel dissects the motivations behind his support, complications in governance, and reactions from international allies. Unexpected election outcomes reveal flaws in polling and voter behavior, while themes of populism and national security resonate powerfully. Ethical dilemmas in leadership and foreign relations take center stage, highlighting the need for stability and empathy in navigating this new political landscape.
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Poll Failure
- The 2016 election polls were significantly wrong, all in the same direction.
- This suggests either a failure of Clinton's turnout operation or a hidden Trump vote.
Silver's Vindication
- Nate Silver's prediction of a potential Trump Electoral College win despite a popular vote loss was vindicated.
- A network effect might have been at play, where errors in multiple states tipped the scales unexpectedly.
Change Election
- The 2016 election was fundamentally about change, with voters seeking to disrupt the status quo.
- National security issues likely played a minor role, as they usually revolve around fear, not change.