Audrey Kurth Cronin, director of the Center for Security, Innovation, and New Technology, joins prominent Middle Eastern politics scholar Marc Lynch, former U.S. diplomat Dennis Ross, and defense strategist Dana Stroul to discuss the evolving crisis in Gaza. They explore the complexities of Israel's military strategy and the need for a coherent political approach post-conflict. The panel emphasizes the shifting regional dynamics, Saudi Arabia’s quest for U.S. defense, and the urgent reforms needed in Palestinian leadership for future stability.
The Israeli military strategy of targeted killings raises concerns about its effectiveness in weakening Hamas and addressing deeper political issues.
Domestic pressures in Arab regimes resulting from the Gaza humanitarian crisis could lead to escalations in regional tensions and conflicts.
Deep dives
The Risk of Escalation in the Middle East
The Middle East faces an increased risk of a regional war due to escalated military actions following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7. Israeli strikes, including targeted killings of Hamas leaders and Hezbollah commanders, have heightened tensions, with retaliatory actions from Iranian proxies and a more aggressive posture from Hezbollah. The complexity of the situation is exacerbated by the multi-front challenges Israel faces, including threats from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. The overarching concern is whether these tit-for-tat responses could spiral into a full-scale conventional war, making it imperative for the U.S. and other key actors to engage diplomatically to stabilize the region.
Targeted Killings and Their Consequences
The strategy of targeted killings employed by Israel has a long history but raises significant concerns regarding its effectiveness in countering organizations like Hamas. Despite the killing of high-profile leaders like Ismail Haniyeh, there is skepticism about whether this approach would ultimately weaken Hamas, given its decentralized structure and entrenched presence in Gaza. Critics argue that simply eliminating leadership does not address the underlying political issues, particularly regarding the resolution of the hostage crisis and the absence of a comprehensive political plan. The ongoing military focus without a viable political strategy risks perpetuating cycles of violence rather than achieving long-term security.
Regional Dynamics and Domestic Pressures
The current situation is further complicated by domestic pressures facing Arab regimes, which are grappling with rising public discontent regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. This unrest may compel regional leaders to take actions that escalate tensions with Israel, even if such maneuvers contradict their immediate interests. There is a growing concern that internal instability within these countries could lead to miscalculations that spark greater conflict, pushing the region towards a tipping point. Furthermore, ongoing provocations in Jerusalem and the West Bank could ignite widespread protests, adding to the volatility of the situation.
Possibilities for Political Resolution
Despite the dire circumstances, experts suggest that there may be opportunities for a political resolution to the conflict if key players can address the underlying issues effectively. This includes fostering a legitimate and capable Palestinian authority that can engage meaningfully with both Israelis and the international community. The question remains whether Israel's current government can pivot to support long-term solutions that go beyond military objectives and acknowledge Palestinian needs. Ultimately, a collaborative approach involving regional actors and sustained international engagement may be necessary to chart a path toward stability and security in Gaza and beyond.
As the war in Gaza grinds on, Israel’s endgame remains unclear. What does it mean to destroy Hamas? Who will provide security and govern Gaza when the fighting stops? How has this war changed Israel’s relationship with its neighbors and the wider world?
To discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the future of Gaza, Foreign Affairs Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan moderated a panel on August 1 that included Audrey Kurth Cronin, Marc Lynch, Dennis Ross, and Dana Stroul. Cronin is director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology and the author ofHow Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. Lynch is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. Ross is a counselor at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a professor at Georgetown University, and a former U.S. envoy to the Middle East, serving in senior national security positions in the Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations. Stroul is director of research at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.