Andrei Martyanov: Russia Poised for Major New Offensive

Apr 7, 2025

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1. Russian Diplomatic Strategy

Russia often engages in diplomacy not to resolve conflict, but as part of a strategy to buy time or shift dynamics.
Ultimately, decisions are made in Moscow, and diplomacy is seen as a tool, not a solution.

2. Russian War Objectives

The primary political goal is regime change in Kyiv, replacing what is described as a “NATO puppet” and “neo-Nazi” government.
The military goal is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Putin’s comments about “finishing off” Ukraine’s troops are taken literally, not as diplomatic posturing.

3. Timeline and Strategy

The Russian military has been told that combat will continue through 2025.
After 2025, there may be a shift to political settlement.
The war is seen by Russian leadership as existential; they want to ensure Ukraine cannot re-emerge militarily.

4. Public Sentiment and Refugees

Many Russians are opposed to the presence of Ukrainian refugees, seeing them as potential security risks or “sleeper cells.”
Putin signed an executive order to remove unregistered Ukrainian males of military age from Russia.

5. Military Developments

Russia could take Kyiv but doesn’t want to govern Ukraine—only to install a compliant government.
Operations are reportedly intensifying in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, with potential large-scale offensives underway or being prepared.
Intelligence suggests Russian forces are making quiet but steady gains, particularly in the Sumy region.

6. Western Perceptions vs. Russian View

Critics say Russia’s progress has been slow and limited (about 22% of Ukraine).
The speaker argues that Russia’s goal is not to take land, but to destroy Ukraine's military.
Capturing territory is secondary to annihilating Ukraine’s capacity to resist.

7. Military Manpower & Attrition

Ukraine’s forces are reportedly depleted, with younger and less experienced troops, including women, increasingly being deployed.
Russia is deliberately avoiding major offensives in heavily populated, anti-Russian cities (e.g., Kharkiv) to minimize their own casualties and maintain domestic stability.

8. Russian Strategic Approach

The war is framed as a “special military operation” rather than full-scale war to avoid full mobilization and preserve the Russian economy.
Russia seeks slow, steady attrition rather than rapid conquest, avoiding a total war economy.

9. Demographics & Impact

Ukraine’s population is estimated to have dropped from 40 million to about 20 million, largely due to refugees.
The speaker uses this as a metric to argue that Russia’s strategy is working, regardless of Western perception.