The fall of the Assad regime has led to a significant shift in Syria, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seizing power in Damascus. The podcast explores the complex factors that enabled this change, including international interventions and the aftermath of the Arab Spring. It delves into the challenges posed by rising authoritarianism and the influence of Islamist governance. Geopolitical dynamics involving Iran, Turkey, and the U.S. further complicate Syria's future, as the country grapples with socioeconomic crises and the quest for a stable political framework.
The unexpected fall of the Assad regime resulted from a swift offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, altering Syria's political landscape dramatically.
Despite claiming authority, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham faces skepticism over its governance style and past extremist connections, complicating its acceptance among Syrians.
Deep dives
The Sudden Fall of Assad's Regime
The recent offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marked a dramatic shift in Syria’s power dynamics, culminating in President Bashar al-Assad fleeing the country. Within a span of two weeks, HTS seized control of large portions of Syria, indicating that the Assad regime had already lost grip on key territories prior to this rapid advance. Factors contributing to this change included the distraction of regional allies like Hezbollah and Iran, who were preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere, and a miscalculation by Russia regarding the speed of the offensive. The sudden collapse of Assad's rule signaled a significant restructuring of the political landscape in Syria, raising questions about the future governance of the country.
The Role and Governance of HTS
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously known for its connection to extremist ideologies, has positioned itself as a local authority aimed at providing governance and stability in Idlib. Unlike other factions, HTS has managed to generate local revenue through control over tax stations and trade routes, allowing for relative stability amidst chaos. However, concerns remain about its authoritarian governance style and the potential imposition of a strict Islamist agenda on the population. The leadership of HTS, particularly through its figurehead Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has sought to rebrand the organization, yet its past associations with jihadist movements could pose challenges in securing broader acceptance and legitimacy among the Syrian populace.
The International Geopolitical Implications
The shift in power towards HTS poses significant geopolitical ramifications, particularly affecting relationships with Iran and Turkey, who have had vested interests in the region. Iran's longstanding alliance with Assad has now been undermined, jeopardizing its influence in Syria and diminishing its capacity to project power against Israel. Turkey, which has supported various rebel factions, may seek to capitalize on the changing dynamics to expand its regional influence, especially concerning Kurdish entities. The future involvement of global powers, including the uncertain position of the United States after the troop presence was questioned, further complicates the landscape, making the next steps for Syria's governance unclear and potentially fraught with conflict.
In December 2024, the decades-old Assad regime in Syria fell following 13 years of brutal civil war.
The Islamist rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, seized power in the capital Damascus, having co-ordinated a lightning offensive along with other opposition forces across the country.
This week on The Inquiry, we examine how recent events led to the current situation, who the main players are vying for control, and the many challenges facing both the new government and the Syrian people.
Presenter: Tanya Beckett
Producer: Ben Cooper
Researcher: Evie Yabsley
Production Co-ordinator: Liam Morrey
Technical producer: Toby James
Editor: Tara McDermott
Contributors:
Tim Eaton, Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House
Dr Rahaf Aldoughli, Middle East and North African Studies at Lancaster University
David Schenker, Director of the Arab politics programme at the Washington
Natasha Hall, Middle East programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Image Credit: ABDULAZIZ KETAZ via Getty Images
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode