026 - Gary Antonacci - New Models & Research Updates
Sep 13, 2024
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Gary Antonacci, a researcher renowned for his trend-following expertise, and Carlo Zarattini from Concretum Research, dive deep into a groundbreaking 100-year study. They discuss the impressive 18.2% annual return achieved through innovative strategies like volatility-based position sizing and channel breakouts. The conversation also touches on the importance of long-term data for refining trading decisions, the challenges of integrating mean reversion strategies, and how psychological factors influence investor behavior. A rich exploration of trading dynamics awaits!
The research paper highlights a powerful trend-following strategy averaging 18.2% annual return with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.39, showcasing long-term effectiveness.
Incorporating a variety of trend factors, including absolute and time series momentum, allows traders to optimize strategies across diverse market conditions.
Volatility-based position sizing is crucial for managing risk, enabling traders to adjust positions according to market dynamics and avoid overexposure.
Deep dives
Complementary Markets and Models
Having complementary markets and models is essential for successful systematic trading. The podcast discusses the importance of incorporating various trend factors beyond the dominant channel breakout approach, emphasizing a holistic view of market behaviors. This includes analyzing absolute momentum, time series momentum, and moving averages as foundational components. Such integration allows traders to better navigate different market conditions and capitalize on diverse opportunities.
Centennial Trends in US Equity Sectors
A significant focus of the discussion is a research paper analyzing a century of performance across U.S. equity sectors, particularly through the lens of available data and its implementation via ETFs. The analysis employed data from the French database, which provided a diverse and robust dataset for evaluating trends. This in-depth investigation aimed to measure cross-sectional and time-series momentum, asserting that long-term research underpins successful trading strategies. The intent was to validate the effectiveness of trend-following models over extensive periods, leading to reliable trading insights.
Channel Breakout Models
The podcast highlights the application of simple yet effective channel breakout models in trading strategies, specifically using the Keltner and Donchian channels. By initiating trades when prices break through these channels and allowing sufficient room for market movements, this method reduces noise and enhances trading efficiency. The entry and exit strategies focus on breaking high and low thresholds over specific time frames, enabling clearer signals for action. The discussion emphasizes that such methods have a historical foundation and tend to yield better outcomes when trading in aligned market conditions.
Volatility-Based Position Sizing
Volatility-based position sizing is discussed as a crucial element of risk management within trading strategies. By normalizing position sizes according to the calculated volatility, traders can adjust to market dynamics more effectively and avoid overexposure during turbulent times. The podcast explains that this approach allows for daily rebalancing of positions, leading to a more responsive trading model. Consequently, this technique aims to balance the potential for high returns while managing risks associated with market fluctuations.
Diversifying with Non-Correlated Assets
The strategy of incorporating diverse, non-correlated assets into trading portfolios is emphasized as a means to reduce overall portfolio volatility. The discussion highlights the need to understand the characteristics of various assets, including their risk-return profiles, to build a balanced portfolio. This involves strategically selecting ETFs and assets that demonstrate different behaviors under various market conditions, thereby enhancing capital efficiency. The host and guest underline that a well-composed portfolio can withstand market shifts, potentially enhancing long-term performance.
Gary Antonacci is back on the show after having released a new research paper with Carlo Zarattini from Concretum Research which constitutes a 100-year study on trend following US sectors. The strategy deployed in the paper has an impressive long-term track record, averaging an annual return of 18.2% with 12.6% volatility and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.39. Using Keltner and Donchian channels for entries & edits, volatility-based position sizing and a universe of 48 sectors, the simple model is surprisingly robust and a testament to the enduring power of trend following.
Get all the links over at www.thealgorithmicadvantage.com
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