Monetary Matters with Jack Farley The Treacherous Last Mile of Inflation | Vincent Deluard on France, 2025 U.S. Fiscal Drag, COLA Pain, and the U.S. Healthcare Price Spiral
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Dec 15, 2024 
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, shares his insights on the perilous economic landscape leading up to 2025. He discusses how a lower 2024 inflation rate will squeeze government benefits like Social Security through COLA adjustments. Deluard warns of a strong U.S. dollar impacting corporate earnings and predicts potential spending cuts at state and local levels. He also provides a keen analysis of the political turmoil in France and its broader macroeconomic implications.
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Sahm Rule Failure
- The Sahm Rule recession indicator failed due to undocumented immigration and reporting issues.
- Immigration influx offset labor force dropouts, boosting growth instead of triggering a recession.
Premature Recessionary Concerns
- Recessionary concerns like commercial real estate and the inverted yield curve were not incorrect, just premature.
- Refinancing and high cash levels mitigated their impact initially, but these pressures are expected to surface in 2025-2026.
2025 Bear Market Prediction
- Vincent Deluard predicts a bear market for April-May 2025, citing a 16-year bull market cycle.
- He draws parallels to historical bull markets, linking them to major U.S. victories and suggesting a potential turning point.